Navigating a News-Driven Market
The current equity market is defined by one word: volatility. With commodities — particularly crude oil — swinging at historic levels amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, traders find themselves in a reactive, news-driven environment. The US dollar has softened, prompting risk-on behavior in equities, but the rallies and selloffs should be treated with caution. Volume is spiking, yet genuine liquidity on the books remains thin — a telltale sign that much of the action is short-term, in-and-out trading rather than sustained conviction.
When margins are raised on volatile commodities, the ripple effects can reach equities. Firms trading with conviction in oil or gold may be forced to liquidate other positions if moves go against them. In this environment, neither the upside nor the downside can be fully trusted, and swift reaction times are essential.
Figure Technology (FIGR): A Sneaky Crypto Play
Figure Technology stands out as one of the more compelling setups in the current landscape. The stock has pulled back sharply from its highs but is now staging a technical breakout above its faster moving averages — a sign of renewed near-term strength among fintech names that have broadly struggled.
The key level to watch is $35. A sustained close above this price opens the door to a near-term move toward $40, and potentially as high as $43. From a volume profile perspective, the stock is re-entering a major trading zone between roughly $35 and $43, with the point of control sitting near $35.60.
What makes FIGR particularly interesting is its indirect exposure to cryptocurrency. In the current commodity chaos, Bitcoin has quietly emerged as something of a relief asset. When crude weakens, gold strengthens — and vice versa — largely due to margin dynamics in both commodities. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been relatively stable, almost functioning as a safe haven compared to the wild swings in precious metals and energy. That shift in perception benefits crypto-adjacent companies like Figure Technology.
The RSI is also encouraging: it has broken out of oversold territory, cracked through a downward-sloping trend line, and is making new relative highs alongside price. If the stock can push through the congestion zone and clear $43, the next node of volume activity sits between $53 and $58.
NXT Power: An Unheralded Riser
NXT Power has been one of the quieter success stories over the past year — a steady riser that has largely flown under the radar. After topping out near $130, the stock pulled back to the psychologically significant $100 level, where buyers and sellers spent roughly a week and a half in a tug-of-war. The buyers ultimately proved more responsive, with sharp buying activity near that round number.
The critical resistance level is $113, which marked the bottom of a well-defined prior trading range with a ceiling around $123–$124. If the stock can break above $113 and anchor there, the path to $125–$127 is relatively unobstructed from a technical standpoint. These "profit pockets" — areas where prior congestion cleared — tend to be traversed quickly once broken.
Supporting this thesis, the stock has already reclaimed three shorter-term exponential moving averages (5-day, 21-day, and 63-day), with the 21-day monthly EMA sitting around $110 as potential near-term support. The RSI has crossed above the 50 midline and broken through its own downward-sloping trend line, signaling improving momentum that favors the bulls. In a market environment that rewards swifter, more immediate moves, NXT Power fits the profile well.
United Airlines (UAL): A Bearish Case Built on Fuel Exposure
United Airlines presents the opposite side of the trade. The stock had formed a quadruple top at its 52-week high near $119, a clear signal of exhaustion at the highs. Since then, it has fallen more than 20%, and the technical picture continues to deteriorate.
The bearish thesis is fundamentally straightforward. Fuel costs represented roughly 21% of United's total expenses last year, and the airline — along with American and Delta — has moved away from the industry practice of hedging fuel purchases at locked-in prices. This leaves them fully exposed to rapidly rising crude oil costs, a vulnerability that directly compresses margins.
Compounding the problem are displaced and canceled flights related to the Middle East conflict and adverse weather events. Every rally in the stock should be viewed as a potential shorting opportunity rather than a recovery signal.
Technically, the stock has fallen below all four of its key moving averages, with the long-term 251-day EMA near $96 now acting as overhead resistance. The RSI is on the verge of crossing below the 30 threshold into oversold territory — and in a downward-trending market, a push into oversold conditions is typically a sign of further weakness ahead, not an imminent bounce.
The volume profile tells a concerning story as well. The $90–$95 zone represents something of a last stand for buyers. Below that, there is a gulf of minimal trading activity — not much to arrest a decline until around the $75–$80 range, where the point of control sits near $78. A move into the mid-to-lower $70s by month's end is a realistic scenario if current headwinds persist.
Conclusion
These three stocks illustrate the range of opportunities available in a volatile, headline-driven market. Figure Technology offers an attractive recovery play with crypto tailwinds. NXT Power is a momentum name breaking through resistance with improving technicals. United Airlines, meanwhile, serves as a cautionary tale of what happens when fundamental exposure to rising commodity costs meets a deteriorating technical setup. In all three cases, the message is the same: in this market, traders must be nimble, disciplined, and willing to react swiftly to rapidly shifting conditions.