A convergence of forces — market technicals, regulation, politics, and monetary policy — is lining up for crypto in July, and Bitcoin's next move may be dramatic. The immediate backdrop is bearish on its surface but shows telling signs of a possible turning point. To make sense of it, it helps to hold two ideas simultaneously: Bitcoin's price has fallen to its lowest level in two years, and yet the conditions for a relief rally are building.
The Market Setup: Lowest Candle in Two Years, but Signs of Life
Bitcoin just closed its lowest monthly candle since September of 2024. But on the very first day of July, the market ticked upward. Roughly $100 million in short positions were liquidated in just four hours as Bitcoin jumped back above $60,000.
What makes this bounce notable is that spot demand is supporting the price action, not just leverage unwinding. The initial pump came from shorts being liquidated, yes, but genuine spot buying is behind it as well. As long as that spot demand persists, the momentum can continue.
Still, the technical picture remains mixed. Bitcoin is trading below its major moving averages, which is bearish. On the bullish side, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hit a record low, there is bullish divergence, and the asset is approaching oversold territory. The key levels to watch are clear: if $58K breaks, the next support is $55K. To turn short-term bullish, Bitcoin needs to reclaim above $62,500. Beyond that, the bulls must reclaim the 200-day moving average at roughly $62,400, followed by resistance at $64K. Bitcoin is, in short, sitting in a consolidation zone.
In the short term, everything looks like it could go lower — and that is precisely what nearly everyone is predicting. But that near-universal bearishness is usually exactly what surfaces near a bottom, especially after three consecutive quarters of lower lows. Three monthly red candles in a row echo the pattern seen in 2020. The counter-narrative, then, is that a reversal could unfold over the coming months, contrary to consensus expectations.
The 14-Week Clock: Cost Basis Convergence
A structural signal points to a possible market turn about 14 weeks out — a moment that could resemble the equivalent point in the last cycle. The mechanics are these: the long-term holder cost basis sits around $49K and is rising, while the short-term holder cost basis sits around $69K and is falling. At the current pace, these two lines collide in roughly 14 weeks. Historically, that convergence has marked the final innings of Bitcoin bear markets. The implicit question for investors is whether they have the patience to wait another 14 weeks.
Regulation: The Clarity Act and a Pro-Crypto SEC
On the regulatory front, the tone from Washington has shifted decisively. The SEC Chair, Paul Atkins, has stated plainly that he wants crypto to flourish in the US, framing it as one of his central objectives since day one. According to him, the president challenged the agency to make the United States the crypto capital of the world.
Atkins drew a sharp contrast with the previous administration, whose approach at the SEC and other agencies was, in his telling, to treat digital assets themselves as inherently "evil" — blaming the assets rather than distinguishing them from the bad actors who might be behind some of them. His stated goal is to reverse that: to bring back innovators who fled the US to build abroad, so they can develop their products domestically under American laws, for American investors and customers. The philosophy is to let American investors decide for themselves whether to buy and invest, rather than having the government decide for them.
The other major legislative piece is the Clarity Act. On prediction markets, most participants are counting it out — they are not bullish on it passing before the midterms. Yet an unusual number of figures in US regulation are publicly insisting it is their top priority. SEC Commissioner Hester Pierce spoke on it directly, noting that the House has done its work and the Senate has been working hard. She said she remains optimistic it will get done this summer and expects it to pass soon — a striking case of a regulator putting her reputation on the line at this point in July.
Pierce elaborated that a great deal of work has been invested by many people in both the House and the Senate, and that work is ongoing. She emphasized that legislation is genuinely hard — something she learned from her time on the Senate Banking Committee — because there are many moving pieces, this is a large bill, and it is attempting to accomplish a lot of difficult things at once. Her assessment: they are making good progress.
The Trump Crypto Windfall
The most headline-grabbing crypto story, reaching well beyond the crypto press, concerns the president's personal finances. After his financial disclosures were released and more than 900 pages were analyzed, the figures show Trump has made about $1.1 billion from crypto. The breakdown:
- $600 million from the Trump memecoin
- $200 million from the World Liberty Finance token sale
- Nearly $200 million from the sale of an ownership interest in their stablecoin
- $65 million from the sale of part of Trump's World Liberty Finance
- $6 million from Melania's NFT sales
- $1.2 million from staking their Ethereum
This has left many people, both inside and outside crypto, with a bad taste in their mouths. As one observer put it, one of the craziest details is that Trump apparently made more from crypto than Coinbase did — meaning he personally out-earned every publicly traded US crypto company. "Pro-crypto president indeed."
It is worth noting that Trump remains a large holder: more than $100 million in Bitcoin (with $50 million in cold storage), $55 million in Ethereum (half of that in cold storage), plus the World Liberty token, a stablecoin, and positions in top DeFi projects. He is still holding and still bullish, as is JD Vance.
The honest read on this is that Trump takes care of himself first, and the hope is that taking care of crypto comes second — and it does appear that supporting crypto remains hugely important to him. In his own framing, he wants to make crypto great for America and does not want to cede leadership to China. He views crypto as a winner-take-all industry: there will be a number one and effectively no number two, and right now the US is number one "by a long shot." His stated aim is to keep it that way, just as the US leads in AI.
Monetary Policy: A "Secretly Bullish" Fed
Finally, monetary policy rounds out the July picture. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking at the ECB forum, gave no hints about the direction of July rates — which will most likely remain unchanged. He stressed the Fed's independence and was notably bullish on the US economy, particularly regarding AI, and generally optimistic. Rate cuts do not appear likely this month, though a cut later this year or next year is plausible.
Despite the hawkish framing, there is an argument that his comments were secretly bullish. Reflecting on the committee's prior meeting, Warsh described the labor market as steady, the demand side of the economy as solid, and the supply side — especially capex and productivity, even before the fruits of AI are visible — as strong. He reinforced a point made by President Lagarde that they are all "in the price stability business," acknowledging that prices are too high and recommitting to delivering price stability.
When a questioner suggested the market was right to read his first news conference as hawkish, Warsh deflected with a "nice try," saying his senior colleagues had advised him against confirming it. He did note, however, that inflation expectations had come down over the first few weeks of the period and that inflation risks had come down. He cautioned against overdetermining outcomes, but made clear that anyone expecting the central bank to tolerate inflation above 2% would be disappointed: the committee has signed up to deliver price stability in the US, with the tactics and strategy still to come.
On independence, Warsh was unequivocal — no matter what the president wants, the Fed has been an independent central bank for a very long time and will remain one, with no changes at this moment.
The Bigger Picture
The near-term obstacles are real: a period of geopolitical events and thin liquidity is weighing on the market, and even the largest corporate crypto treasury in the world — Michael Saylor's — now issues near-daily announcements that seem to unsettle sentiment. But taking a step back, the long-term view is genuinely, deeply bullish. The expectation is that this difficult stretch passes soon. When it does, given the convergence of an oversold market, imminent regulatory clarity, a pro-crypto administration, and a Fed that may be closer to easing than it lets on, Bitcoin's next move could take the world by surprise.
(As a side note on infrastructure: in the quantum-computing space, BTQ Technologies — a quantum-tech firm focused on securing mission-critical networks — received final regulatory approval for its full acquisition of Q Perfect, a French quantum-computing company based in Strasbourg that specializes in quantum software emulation, digital-twin capabilities, and control systems. While everyone chases quantum computers, BTQ bought the company that tests them — and the "unsexy" infrastructure layer is often where the money is.)
