Nvidia
The stock is up about 7% this week and over 3.5% today, closing back above its 50-day simple moving average for the first time in weeks. It broke out of the $190-$200 range but sits about 11% below its all-time high. The most recent high, near $236, came in May. Over three months it is up about 14%.
Reports say select Chinese AI firms will be allowed to buy limited amounts of H200 chips. Named buyers: ByteDance, Alibaba, and Deep Seek. These aren't the chips they want. They want the high-end chips, and current U.S. government restrictions block those sales. The stock also faced pressure tied to Meta.
Growth last quarter ran 85%, yet the stock lagged the broader rally, which puzzled many. Forward price-to-earnings sits near 22 times the next 12 months, low versus the past two to three years and cheap compared to AMD and Intel.
Call buying dominated today. Call volume ran about three times the normal daily average and nearly tripled put volume. Put volume topped a million contracts; call volume neared three and a half million. Early this morning, with the stock up only about 1%, one trader bought over 15,000 of the July 17th monthly 205-strike calls, expiring in 7 days. They were at the money then, now in the money. The average price paid was $5, setting the break-even near $210, roughly where the stock trades now.
SpaceX
Down about 13% this month, near its post-IPO lows around $145. It hovers around the $150 opening price from its public debut and stays above the $135 IPO price set earlier. The stock can't gain traction as investors weigh valuation against expectations.
A Grok 4.5 announcement with cursor earlier this week gave a brief lift before the stock fell back. A frequent question: when will Tesla merge with SpaceX? The synergies are likely there. Analyst initiations this week were mostly buys, with targets up to $300, most in the mid-to-low $200s.
One bullish trade landed in the August monthly options, 42 days to expiration: over 2,000 of the 145-strike calls at an average price of about $18.50. Break-even sits above $163.50, roughly 10% above the current price and within the stock's trading range. Put and call volume ran about equal today, with a put-call ratio near 0.9.
For context, this was the largest IPO; the second-largest equity offering, SK Hynix, priced today and holds a gain of about 13% at $168.
Intel
Still up big on the year but down over 20% in July, putting it in bear-market territory off its early-month all-time highs after a parabolic run. Recent weakness reflects profit-taking.
Stifel raised its price target to $120 from $75, citing CPU demand outstripping supply. Intel keeps the dominant share of CPU sales even as AMD chips away at it, and Nvidia is bringing its own CPU to market.
Bearish flow showed up in the July 31st weekly options, expiring in 21 days: a trader bought 3,500 of the 99-strike puts, far out of the money to the downside, at an average price of about $5.80. Break-even sits below $93.20, about 15% under the current price. The trader has three weeks for the correction to continue.
