Bitcoin popped to $64,000 after struggling to hold the 60-62k zone. The move reflects returning appetite from traders and speculators rather than capital rotating out of the data-center or AI trade and back into crypto.
The Strategy sale that didn't spook the market
Strategy disclosed selling about $225 million of Bitcoin yesterday. The reaction differed sharply from prior episodes: Bitcoin fell only 3.5% and recouped much of that by day's end, instead of the 20% drop seen before. Bitcoin trades at a discounted value because appetite to buy has been thin, with traders electing to ride the fastest horses in AI and in the IPOs expected later this year, including SpaceX and AI-related names. The shift this week is that buyers finally started buying the dip in both futures and spot markets.
Back in May, Saylor said on an earnings call that Strategy would probably sell some Bitcoin to fund a dividend and "inoculate the market and show them that we can do it." He did exactly that. A fear had built that Strategy and other Bitcoin treasuries would eventually turn seller, feeding a narrative that their liquidation or insolvency risk caps price discovery. That narrative is wrong. Traders are now pricing in the reality that Strategy may run routine sales to fund dividends, and the market is looking past the fact that digital asset treasuries can sell crypto at some point. One argument holds that Saylor selling is actually bullish, since it firms up the overall market: paying dividends on preferred stock offerings signals strength and could have the opposite of the feared effect.
Range-bound, with signs of a bottom
Expect Bitcoin to stay range-bound through the rest of this quarter, possibly to year-end. The bullish counterweights are real. Bitcoin ETFs broke a 10-day consecutive selling streak last week. July 2nd saw a $220 million net flow, and yesterday the crypto ETFs saw $266 million. Spot and futures cumulative volume delta shows $2.9 billion on the buy side over the last 7 days, with yesterday alone a roughly 705 million net buy across spot and futures combined. Buyers keep stepping in at 60k and below, and the price consolidating could be a sign the market is carving out a bottom and starting a trend reversion, though it is too early to make that call.
The Fed is the bigger animal
Warsh's policy views are still being defined by himself and by five upcoming task forces meant to inform the market soon. He threw out forward guidance entirely at his first press conference. Crypto markets sold off after that first presser on June 17th. Bitcoin should trade on pins and needles going into the release of the June FOMC minutes, with a strong reaction likely once they go public. Hawkish language in those minutes could zap traders' risk appetite, especially if tech stocks and microchips react negatively during the Wednesday session.
The Clarity Act and legislative drift
The Clarity Act keeps getting pushed along. It missed its July 4th signing target and faces a tight four-week race ahead of the Senate's summer recess on August 7th. The legislation matters for the actual market by providing clarity on building out B2B and B2C products and services. From a trader's standpoint, though, other narratives are driving the market right now. If the odds start to look favorable, money will position ahead of the outcome, but the Clarity Act is not the sole determinant of what the crypto market does for the remainder of 2026.
Four quarters of pressure
Bitcoin has never before faced four consecutive quarters of pressure, and it has now had them. Year-to-date Bitcoin is down 27% and down 41% over one year. Ethereum is down 30% over one year.
