The crypto market is currently moving through one of the most significant resets in its history — arguably larger in scope than the bear market of 2020. Bitcoin has fallen roughly 25% over a span of several weeks, and most investors are reacting by doing nothing: sitting on the sidelines, waiting for conditions to deteriorate further, and hoping to perfectly time the bottom. The argument here is the opposite. Rather than waiting passively, this is the moment to understand the mechanics of how prices bottom and to position accordingly, because the window to build substantial wealth through crypto and AI may be closing quickly.
A clear disclaimer applies throughout: none of this is financial advice, and no one can see the future. What follows is simply a description of an approach and a reasoning framework. Bitcoin could realistically fall to around 40,000 — possibly quickly, but more likely over the next six to eight months. The overall conviction, however, is that it ultimately goes higher.
The 200-Week Moving Average as a Bottoming Signal
The central technical idea is mean reversion. Historically, when Bitcoin's price reverts to the mean and returns to the 200-week moving average, it has marked a bottom 100% of the time — four out of four occurrences across its history. Each of those four instances was an excellent time to buy, landing at or very near Bitcoin's bottom.
With Bitcoin around 61,000, this represents the fifth time in its history that the price has touched the 200-week moving average. The previous four were all ideal opportunities to buy the dip. The expectation is that over the next several weeks Bitcoin will go through its bottoming process — a period of consolidation and "chop." This pattern has repeated before: in the 2022 bear market the price touched the 200-week average and then consolidated for weeks; in the 2018–2019 bear market it did the same; and in every single bear market in Bitcoin's history, the 200-week moving average marked the buying zone.
An important caveat: touching this level may not pinpoint the exact bottom. Bitcoin could become more undervalued and present an even better buying opportunity. It could spend a couple of weeks falling another 10% or 20%. But mean reversion to the 200-week moving average is the reference point where, 100% of the time so far, Bitcoin has ultimately bottomed.
The Megatrend: Unstoppable Money Printing
The technical signal is only half the thesis. The other half is the macroeconomic megatrend, framed as a single question: what is the value of absolute digital scarcity in a world where U.S. debt is out of control?
The federal debt-to-GDP ratio now exceeds 120%, a level never seen before. The country cannot control the amount of debt it must service. There are only two ways out. The first is to default — but defaulting would mean being unable to pay Medicare, fund the military, or fund Social Security. The second, which the government has chosen 100% of the time so far, is to print more money and devalue the dollar.
The deeper point is that the government is not borrowing or printing because it wants to — it is doing so because it has to. If the borrowing stops, the entire machine seizes up: no Social Security payments, no Medicare, and an inability to even pay the interest on existing debt. That interest is already consuming a record 19% of federal revenue. In such an environment, absolute digital scarcity becomes extremely valuable — and Bitcoin is precisely that.
This scarcity argument is reinforced by the view that Bitcoin is the best inflation hedge available, better than gold. The reasoning: gold's supply increases by a couple of percent every year, whereas Bitcoin has a finite, fixed supply that can be mined, and it is decentralized. In that sense it has the greatest scarcity value of anything. So Bitcoin is positioned to go higher on both its fundamentals (scarce supply) and the megatrend (governments continuing to print).
Trading in Both Directions
A practical tool discussed for navigating this market is perpetual trading — a way to bet on the price direction of an asset with no expiry. As long as you have a directional view, you can open a long position and profit if the price rises, provided you fund the trade. Crucially, perpetuals also let you profit when the price falls.
Concrete examples illustrate this: a short position was opened on the memecoin Shiba Inu (SHIB), with a stated preference for shorting meme coins, returning a 9% gain. At the same time, a Solana position was down 4%. The takeaway is that money can be made whether crypto goes up or down. The platform used is CFTC-regulated and described as the first U.S. company to offer perpetuals, with a promotional incentive: opening an account and trading $50 yields an immediate $25.
Most Altcoins Will Die — But Some Have Real Value
A blunt assessment underpins the altcoin selection: most altcoins will not survive. The belief is that 95% to 99% of altcoins will go to zero. Yet this is described as one of the beauties of a bear market — liquidity gets washed away, and what remains makes it easier to identify what genuinely has value.
The selection strategy rests on betting on megatrends and on coins with product-market fit. The megatrends identified are artificial intelligence and robotics, and tokenization.
Bittensor (TAO) — A Bet on AI Infrastructure
The first AI-and-robotics play is Bittensor, viewed as a bet on infrastructure rather than on picking a specific AI or robotics startup winner. The core concept: Bittensor takes Bitcoin's mining side and makes it programmable. Its main coin is called TAO, and the founding idea is to "do Bitcoin again," but this time mine for AI — mining for intelligence, a process called proof of useful work.
Like Bitcoin, TAO has a 21-million coin cap, with roughly 11 million mined so far. In terms of both circulating supply and price, this places it at roughly the equivalent of Bitcoin in 2013.
Inside Bittensor there are 128 subnets, described as neighborhoods. Each subnet mines a different AI product, has its own token, is also mined, and also carries a 21-million coin cap. To obtain subnet tokens, you must either mine them or stake TAO — which makes subnet tokens effectively rehypothecated TAO. This creates a direct economic connection between TAO and the subnet tokens.
This is a major structural difference from Ethereum and Solana, where the protocol tokens have essentially no economic relationship with the gas tokens beneath the applications running on them. Because of this linkage, TAO behaves like an S&P 500 of all the subnets: holding TAO gives broad exposure to the whole category, but picking the right subnet can deliver exponentially better returns. So the practical guidance is: hold TAO if you want to own the category, but pick a subnet if you want to take a concentrated bet on one of the 128.
On valuations, subnet token market caps range from roughly $1 million to about $100 million, with most sitting in the $5 million to $20 million range — described as very early-stage valuations for what are effectively AI companies.
Ethereum and Solana — Tokenization Winners
The second megatrend is tokenization, and the coins set to benefit most are Ethereum first and Solana secondarily. Tokenization is advancing by leaps and bounds, with the largest names on Wall Street getting heavily involved — JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Franklin Templeton, BlackRock, State Street, Invesco, and Fidelity. This includes the tokenization of securities, equities, cash, and ETFs.
Which coins are most impacted? The answer given is Ethereum and, secondarily, Solana. Ethereum is described as quietly accomplishing what most networks aspire to: growing users and activity at the same time. According to cited data, ETH reached record usage in Q1 2026 — 13.2 million monthly active users, up 53% quarter over quarter, and 200 million transactions, up 38% quarter over quarter.
A clear distinction is drawn between two sides of the crypto world. One side is Bitcoin itself, which stands alone — unique and different, and everything Michael Sailor says about it is regarded as correct. The other side is the commercial application of crypto: not just the store-of-value, anti-fiat, anti-inflation argument, but actual commercial usage — "if-then" contracts, smart money, programmable money. That is what Ethereum and Solana do, along with a few others.
When asked whether Ethereum is still the number-two cryptocurrency that institutional investors should be looking at, the answer is yes — with Solana a very close addition. As more tokenization occurs, it is being done predominantly on Ethereum and Solana, with Algorand, Polygon, Chainlink, and a few others also enjoying the wave. But for the present and foreseeable future, Ethereum and Solana are the big winners in that space, and as tokenization and stablecoins grow, they remain the two big beneficiaries.
Chainlink — Critical Middleware
Chainlink is another coin highlighted for its product-market fit. It is being institutionalized and gaining adoption, which is viewed favorably. Chainlink is described as critical middleware technology for achieving the tokenization vision — essential to bringing tokenized assets onto public blockchain technology in capital markets.
Polkadot — An Open Question
Finally, Polkadot is raised as a genuine open question rather than a recommendation: does anyone still believe in Polkadot? It is put forward for honest discussion rather than presented with conviction.
Summary of the Approach
The overall framework can be distilled into a few principles. First, recognize that the 200-week moving average has historically marked Bitcoin's bottoms, and that the current touch is the fifth such instance. Second, understand the macro megatrend — governments must keep printing money, making absolute digital scarcity like Bitcoin increasingly valuable. Third, accept that the vast majority of altcoins will go to zero, and concentrate on those riding durable megatrends with real product-market fit: AI and robotics (Bittensor and its subnets), tokenization (Ethereum and Solana), and supporting infrastructure (Chainlink). The combination of a historically reliable technical signal and powerful structural tailwinds forms the basis for treating this reset not as a reason to wait, but as an opportunity to position.
