Crypto is sitting at a major decision point, and what happens next could set the tone for the entire market. Bitcoin appears to be getting ready for its next big move, yet most investors are either ignoring it or underestimating it. Beneath the surface, a combination of regulatory progress, macroeconomic catalysts, and technical signals is converging in a way that could prove pivotal.
The Macro Catalysts: A Peace Deal and a New Fed Chair
Bitcoin recently rose above $64,000 as Pakistan's prime minister confirmed that a U.S.–Iran peace deal is close. Trump has separately stated that a U.S.–Iran peace deal is to be signed on Sunday. While Trump has announced news like this before, what is adding fresh credibility this time is the corroboration from Pakistan's prime minister, who indicated the deal could come within the next 24 hours. If true, this would be hugely significant for Bitcoin.
There are two ways to interpret the timing. The peace deal could simply be President Trump wanting to create a positive environment ahead of several high-profile events — Elon Musk's SpaceX IPO, and the UFC Freedom 250 event scheduled for the weekend, which coincides with his birthday. Alternatively, it could be more genuine than skeptics assume. Either way, the practical takeaway is the same: if a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran is actually reached, expect volatility and expect Bitcoin to move.
The other major event on the horizon is the first FOMC meeting under the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh. Under current conditions — including inflation rising in the most recent report — many other Fed chairs might be inclined to hike rates. However, most observers expect Warsh to simply hold rates steady at his first meeting. Looking further ahead, the expectation is that Warsh will move toward cutting rates and will also work toward updating what is described as an archaic system.
The Clarity Act: Timeline, Stakes, and the Last Real Chance
After the FOMC meeting, attention turns to July 4th, the date the White House set as its goal for passing the Crypto Clarity Act.
Will the Clarity Act still pass by July 4th? White House Digital Asset Executive Director Patrick Wit was asked directly whether that July 4th timeline still held or whether expectations had shifted. His answer was that they are still making great progress across the three areas that Democratic senators had raised as priorities. He described a daily routine — a "trifecta" worked through mornings and afternoons — covering agriculture, ethics, and the BRCA as the third component. Groups are "at the table trading paper," and he remains optimistic the timeline could be hit, though he stressed that a great deal of work is happening behind the scenes.
A more sober assessment comes from a journalist and podcast host, who argues that hitting the timeline of passing the Clarity Act into law by July 4th is, at this point, logistically impossible. In her view, passing it before the August recess is literally the last realistic chance before the midterms.
Adding a counterpoint, Senator Tim Scott appeared on television claiming the Crypto Clarity Act will pass before August — saying, in effect, "It's coming, period." Acknowledging the widespread sense that the Senate is running out of time before the August recess, his argument rested on the broader inevitability of digital assets in finance. He pointed out that even JP Morgan is now getting involved in stablecoins, precisely because digital assets are part of the future of finance — meaning every single industry, including banks, will want to participate.
Scott framed the legislative goal around two jobs. Job one is making sure consumers are protected. Job two is making it less expensive to do business in America and easier to do it 24/7 — and he argued that blockchain and digital assets are exactly what allow the system to get there faster.
What is the single biggest change crypto companies and investors should expect over the next year once the Clarity Act passes? The answer offered was "certainty and clarity" — which is precisely why the bill carries that name. The goal is to ensure the United States remains the crypto capital of the world. The philosophy represents a deliberate shift away from regulation by enforcement and opaque rules, toward setting clear rules. Critically, those rules need to be enshrined in statute. The reasoning is protective: by cementing the rules into law, a future administration — particularly a Democratic one hostile to crypto, as the previous administration was characterized — would be unable to tear them apart. The statute is intended to ensure the U.S. leads on crypto.
On the practical legislative clock, there are only 16 legislative days left for the House before its August recess, underscoring how tight the window genuinely is.
The Investment Thesis: Why "Smart Money" Is Buying
The framing throughout is that with prices down and powerful tailwinds potentially ahead, smart money is buying at these levels rather than selling. This is presented as a phenomenal area to build a position in Bitcoin. The psychological argument is familiar: people wait years for these moments, and in hindsight they always say, "I wish I could have bought so much more in the bear." The implication is that this is one of those moments — and that, historically speaking, it is a phenomenal time to be in Bitcoin because the metrics, indicators, and charts increasingly resemble what is typically seen around a cycle bottom.
Technical Signals Pointing Toward a Bottom
Several technical indicators are cited as evidence:
- Weekly bullish RSI divergence: Price is trending down while the RSI is trending up. The same divergence formed at the last bear market bottom.
- A rare monthly pattern: On the monthly chart, Bitcoin has produced a wick below the 50 simple moving average and then closed above it (in conjunction with logarithmic Bollinger Bands). This pattern has only happened once before — at the end of the 2015 bear market.
- The 200-week (200E) moving average: Bitcoin hitting this level has always been a great time to buy, though it is not necessarily indicative of the absolute bottom. There is a strong chance Bitcoin holds this level.
If that level does not hold, the next reference is the 300-week moving average, currently around $54,000 and potentially closer to $56,000 within a few weeks. It is possible Bitcoin reaches these lower levels, but it is equally possible it bounces from where it is now.
The $60,000 Support Level
A more institutional view on support levels comes from Schwab's director of crypto research, who was asked which levels he is watching, given that the prior weekend Bitcoin fell through the $60,000 mark — a level Michael Sailor had reportedly identified as the bottom during a conversation at the New York Stock Exchange.
The response was that there is pretty strong fundamental support near $60,000, which is exactly what played out. He cautioned that the existence of support does not mean price cannot briefly trade through it. Two fundamentals reinforce this level:
1. The 200-week moving average sits at roughly $60,000, and this has typically been an area of support in large bear markets.
2. Miner production costs: The miners with the lowest energy costs and the most efficient ASIC fleets mine Bitcoin in the low $60,000s. That figure represents their cost to produce a Bitcoin, making it a genuinely meaningful fundamental floor where Bitcoin has historically found support.
A Tale of Two Sentiments
Perhaps the most striking observation is the divergence in sentiment. On the Wall Street side, even with prices down, most people involved in digital assets are remarkably positive. Financial firms all over the world are looking to add blockchain to their businesses, are exploring tokenization, and are offering crypto products to their customers. The result is a real divergence in mood — one's perspective on the current market depends heavily on where one sits within the crypto ecosystem. Retail investors fixated on falling prices see weakness, while institutional players building infrastructure for the long term see opportunity and an industry steadily integrating into the core of global finance.