What to Expect from Intel's Report
Intel reports on Thursday, July 23rd, and the news should lean more good than bad. Watch for yield improvements and commercial progress on the 18A process node, plus updates on signing more outside foundry customers for the second half of 2026.
The foundry is where Intel holds its crown jewels. Only Intel can offer a real alternative to TSMC for making advanced chips inside the United States. That makes the foundry the place where Intel can show it is truly taking off. Landing at least one big-name external customer would matter a lot. The current customer list is already strong: Amazon, Microsoft, and the Department of Defense, each on multi-billion dollar deals.
Data Center and AI Carry the Load
Foundry progress complements gains in the data center and AI business. Intel is seeing uptake with its Xeon 6 processors, custom ASIC work, and infrastructure processing units (IPUs), which are gaining strong momentum. Growth on this side runs well above the rest of the business.
The other side, PC and client computing, is set to cool. Intel has said the PC market will slow across the board in the second half, with a pickup coming later in 2027. Data center, AI, and foundry strength should offset short-term PC worries.
The Stock and the Repricing
Intel's stock has dropped over 25% this month, so it has already taken a hit, but the forward outlook should improve. TSMC's sales numbers, reported the day before this preview, gave a hint of what to expect Thursday.
Is the foundry momentum real, or just announcements without substance? That is a fair concern. Right now it comes down to perception and timing. Intel indicated the 18A process might slip into late 2026 or early 2027, which helped trigger some of the repricing. That drop also lines up with a broad pullback across the tech sector, much of it profit taking, so the concern is not unique to Intel.
Is the valuation ahead of the fundamentals, or does it make sense? It makes sense. Short-term traders have already priced in the fact that the foundry side has not yet named the big new customers, despite the strong existing list. Intel's outlook for its total addressable market should turn more positive after the second half of 2026 as enterprise customers buy AI PCs and foundry capacity expands. Some near-term concern is already built into the valuation.
The CPU Case
Intel's competitive strength sits on the CPU side. Up to one third of all AI workloads will need Intel's core CPU technology, which is already widely deployed in data centers and personal computers. That market alone will be worth $43 billion by the end of this year, and it should grow beyond $120 billion by 2030.
This demand will pull Intel forward as its 288-core Clearwater Forest chips reach market and scale up. Combined with a PC ramp after the second half of this year, steady data center and AI investment, and a foundry uptick that should be clear by year end, this positions Intel to take off. Intel has the most compelling alternative to TSMC, which is itself performing solidly.
