The Wall of Worry Keeps Climbing
Markets continue to defy pessimism. Despite a steady chorus of concerns that something bad is on the horizon, equities have absorbed each anxiety and pushed higher. The S&P 500 has printed a fresh record, with the index now mounting an assault on the 7,500 level — a mere 40-plus points away. Even names like Nvidia, hitting an intraday record near 227.84, reinforce the broader strength.
This kind of action demands a particular discipline: traders must trade what they see, not what they think. The temptation to fight the tape is dangerous in conditions like these, and stepping in front of strength is one of the surest ways to get hurt.
The Moving Averages That Matter
Since April 1, the prevailing trend support for the S&P 500 has been the 10-day moving average. The 20-day, while still useful, has proven far too slow for active traders — by the time price closes beneath it, far too many points have already been surrendered to the downside to feel validated about selling.
The 10-day currently sits around 7,325, a level that coincides with yesterday's lows. Those lows did nothing to disturb the trend; buyers stepped back in almost immediately. A close below the 10-day would be the first such breach in nearly six weeks and would be the first real warning shot for traders riding the move. Even faster-twitch traders may anchor to the 5-day moving average, which has also provided closing-basis support throughout this rally.
The takeaway is straightforward: the rally has been strong, even unusual in its persistence, and the right posture is to respect it. Use rising short-term moving averages as the line in the sand for managing profitable positions rather than trying to anticipate a top.
The Importance of Staying Nimble
Intraday action has reinforced the point. Earlier in the session, roughly 80% of stocks were trading lower, only for the tape to flip — a sliver of green emerged amid a sea of red, and the indexes promptly rotated back into record territory. In an environment that can pivot that quickly, rigid views are a liability. Nimbleness, paired with predefined risk levels, is what separates traders who keep their gains from those who give them back.
Cipher Mining: A Bull Flag Breakout
Among individual names, Cipher Mining — a Bitcoin and mining data company — is staging a notable move, up about 7% as it breaks out of what appears to be a textbook bull flag.
The setup developed over roughly two weeks. The stock punched through major resistance at $19 following its earnings announcement on May 5, surging 23% that day and constructing a beautiful flagpole. The next session opened higher, traded higher, and then pulled back. Over the next six or seven sessions, the stock built the cloth portion of the flag, with the retreat ceasing precisely at that same $19 breakout level — now reinforced by the rising 20-day moving average.
That convergence is the spot to manage risk. Traders exposed to the position can plan to step out on a close below the 20-day. The current candle, meanwhile, suggests a willingness to push toward the all-time highs near $25.50. If the session closes near where it is trading, it will print above the high of the low day — a classic continuation cue that aggressive traders use to position for a run to new highs. The chart, in short, is signaling continuation rather than exhaustion.
Eli Lilly: A Neckline Reclaim
Eli Lilly, meanwhile, is one of the few pharmaceutical names showing up on the green side of the tape today, gaining over 3% even though the stock remains down roughly 5% for 2026.
The technical importance of today's move is significant. A triple-top formation traced out from November into early 2026 broke down officially in early March. Treating the 990 level as the neckline of that topping pattern, the stock executed a textbook measured move to the downside, bottoming near 868.50 at the end of April. From that low, shares have been rallying back — but today's breakthrough is what gives the recovery teeth.
That 990 neckline, having served as former support that later became resistance, is now being reclaimed. For risk-management purposes, traders can anchor to roughly that 990 level, or to today's low, depending on how tight their stop tolerance is. Intermediate-term participants might prefer to monitor the 50-day moving average around 940, which provided a clean test of support just three sessions ago.
It is a meaningfully improving chart, and today's action specifically gives bulls additional confidence that the recovery has legs. Johnson & Johnson is participating in the same direction, also higher by about 2.5%, suggesting a small but notable bid returning to the pharmaceutical complex.
The Common Thread
What ties these three stories together — the index hitting records, Cipher breaking out of its flag, Eli Lilly reclaiming its neckline — is the discipline of letting price action lead and using objective levels to define risk. Trends like the current one reward patience and humility, punishing those who try to predict tops or bottoms. Whether the anchor is a 10-day moving average on an index, a 20-day on a momentum name, or a former neckline on a recovering large cap, the principle is the same: define the level, respect the level, and let the market do the work.