Market Backdrop: A New Fed Chair's First Meeting
The session unfolds on the opening day of Kevin Warsh's tenure as Federal Reserve Chair, coinciding with his first FOMC meeting. No interest-rate decision is expected until the following day, and that decision is widely anticipated to be a "nothing burger" — an event without major surprises.
What are the takeaways from the morning's market action? The behavior is "not too surprising." There is a modest move down in many of the stocks that had previously posted substantial gains, reflecting a bit of "risk-off" trading. This is driven by uncertainty: market participants are unsure exactly what stance the new Fed chair will take. Several open questions could come into the picture — most notably his stance on policy going forward, his thoughts on the rise in crude oil and its impact on inflation, and what he believes the corrective measure or proper path and course of the FOMC should be.
An additional layer of intrigue stems from the fact that the former chair, Powell, remains on the board as a voting governor. This raises the question of whether some kind of power dynamic could emerge between the two. That outcome is considered highly unlikely, but the meeting is still expected to be more anticipated than recent FOMC gatherings because it marks the new chair's first public address tied to an FOMC meeting and its announcement.
The broader market context is described as constructive. There is reference to a peace deal — apparently a U.S.-brokered arrangement — that still has to be formally signed. Once "pen hits paper," the expectation is that markets will look for a sustainable rally. Absent any FOMC surprises, the names discussed are seen as potential leaders in such a move.
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Stock One: Amazon (AMZN)
The Trade Thesis
A notable headline arrived in the morning: SpaceX leapfrogged Amazon's market cap and then leapfrogged Microsoft's as well. Despite that, Amazon earns its place among the picks for a different reason — it has made a really nice bounce off its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and has been in a good state of recovery. That recovery is precisely the appeal.
This is a short-term momentum play, designed to ride the upside. The setup hinges on the stock holding the $245 level, and it bounced at that level within the prior fifteen minutes of trading. Provided it continues to hold, the chosen instrument is the June 26 short-dated $250 strike calls, ideally entered around $3.75 or lower. The target for the option is roughly $8, which is the projected option price if the stock makes a move to $256. The plan calls for risking about 60% of the contract.
The expectation is that this run will try to take place, though it remains FOMC-dependent. With the market in a good state coming off the pending peace deal, Amazon is expected to be one of the leaders once a sustainable rally develops — assuming no FOMC surprises.
The Technical Picture
On a five-year basis, the key trend indicator is the 100-week moving average, which is nicely up-sloping. There have been a couple of key tests of this average along the way, with the most recent providing a long-range support level near $216 for long-term investors. The most important recent development is the move through $240, which constitutes a key development. The pattern unfolded as a spike to the upside followed by a throwback — an entirely unsurprising sequence in technical analysis. After a breakout, it is desirable to get confirmation of support, and the throwback to $240 appears to have done exactly that, giving long-term traders a support ledge to lean on. Notably, the stock has not yet traded through the high of last week's candle, so a move above that high could trigger a decisive trend-following scenario on the five-year chart.
On the one-year chart, a similar structure appears. The 200-day moving average sits at $233, marking the break of the prior downtrend. The subsequent upside move and throwback tested support at both the 200-day average and the downtrend line — again a support test. The immediate overhanging resistance, at least in the shorter run on the daily chart, is around $255, which is approximately the confluence of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. There could be a pause at that spot, which is not a problem in itself, but ideally the goal is to see trend resumption above the $255 area on the daily chart.
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Stock Two: CleanSpark (CLSK)
The Trade Thesis
CleanSpark is trading more than 4% higher on the day. The appeal is the stock working toward a $19 breakout play. It came back and held a really key price range right around the $14.50 level. As a small-cap name with a tendency to get "absolutely barreled" anytime the market shows disinterest or makes a downside move, CleanSpark has held up remarkably well.
That $14.50 price is notable because there have been a lot of historical highs over the past year at that level. The stock is now using old resistance as support, which signals newfound demand — possibly even from Wall Street, as though institutional interest has picked up. This shift coincides with the company pivoting toward more of a data-center play. That repositioning suggests CleanSpark could follow the same trajectory seen in peer names such as HUT (Hut 8) and Cipher.
The trade looks for a breakout above $19, with a move targeting $23, which represents the 52-week high. To buy time, the chosen instrument is the July 17 calls at the $19 strike, trading around $1.50. Because the premium cost is fairly cheap, a trader could be willing to risk 100% of the contract. If the breakout occurs, the premium is expected to reach roughly $4.50, and if the stock breaks its 52-week high, the thesis is that it will "bubble up" and these contracts could trade as high as $10. The risk is therefore deemed well worth the reward. The name is starting to show a lot of signs of life, and the question is whether there can be follow-through in the near term.
The Technical Picture
Can the trends support a breakout above $19 or beyond the all-time highs? The answer is an enthusiastic yes. A move through the $21 zone would be a significant development. The structure goes back more than two years: confirmed support sits down at the $9.50 level, the mid-range is around $15, and $21.50 stands above. This is exactly the kind of structure one wants to see from such a pattern. If the stock can clear $21.50, the upside could be short-run explosive given the trade's roughly one-month time frame. Any movement through $21.50 could be wonderful for the stock on the weekly basis.
On the daily basis, the trend of development is just what a trader looks for — moving cleanly against the 20-day moving average. There was a spike below it accompanied by weakness, followed immediately by a move right back above it. Short-term weakness of this kind — a two-day, three-day, or one-week pullback that results in an immediate snap-back — is not a concern; it actually indicates conviction and strength. The 20-day moving average at $17 makes a lot of sense for short-term traders to watch.
On an even shorter chart, the $17 level corresponds not only to the daily 20-day moving average but also to the 50-hour moving average over the last 20 days. On the way up, this acted as beautiful support; what was once support became resistance on the way back down; and now price is back above it. Trend traders may find comfort in this 50-hour moving average. Maintaining this up-slope and holding the $17 level in the short run would keep the bulls in charge. At the time of discussion, CleanSpark traded around $17.73, up about three and a half percent.
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Stock Three: CoreWeave (CRWV)
The Trade Thesis
CoreWeave is the most volatile name of the three, trading up close to 8% (and slightly over 8% shortly before). The catalyst is the release of strong new AI training records, generating optimism in the name.
A bigger, less-discussed piece of news is that CoreWeave is now being included in the NASDAQ 100, alongside NBIS (Nebius), Pterodine (Teradyne), and RKLB (Rocket Lab). Among that group, the only stock that has been fairly lethargic since the news is Rocket Lab — and that underperformance is attributed more to the impact of the SpaceX IPO. The reasoning offered: why own the competitor when you could own the "big dog"?
For CoreWeave specifically, the momentum is strong. There have been a lot of inclusive highs and rejection points roughly in the $130 to $150 pricing range. In the near term, the stock is judged to have enough momentum to carry it at least to $130. For evidence of real strength, the desired behavior is to see the stock pivot back on a pullback and immediately hold around the $110 price, which is the 50-day SMA level. That level has been dynamic — the stock has pulled back to it and bounced significantly in recent weeks and months. If buyers come in at a higher price point, that supports the idea of much more upside, especially if the NASDAQ moves higher.
The chosen instrument is the July 10 weekly $130 strike calls, trading around $3.50, with only about 40% of the contract at risk. If the stock really moves, those calls could tap somewhere between $10 and $15 in quick fashion. From a reward-to-risk standpoint, the trade is attractive, though buying these types of names is acknowledged as risky, especially amid market volatility.
Supporting evidence comes from the peer group: when demand shows up in these names, the performance follows. Teradyne is knocking on the doors of new 52-week highs, and Nebius (NBIS) seems to be going up almost daily. Many of these AI products are finding an insatiable amount of demand. A key behavioral tell for CoreWeave is that it tends to fade back and pull back with big vigor; therefore, if it actually holds up a little quicker than it normally would, that could be the early indication that the stock is ready to make a big move higher.
The Technical Picture
What does the technical setup show for this more volatile name? In terms of trend, it is really hard to dislike. There is a beautiful break of the downtrend line after holding clean support, with price moving back above the 20-period weekly moving average and then "dancing" on it through recent weakness. That weakness is not the kind that cannot be sustained.
The name is genuinely volatile, with moves swinging between roughly $95 and $125–$135, which makes it difficult to hold comfortably; anyone who can hold through that volatility deserves credit. Even so, the weekly chart looks like an improvement, with an up-sloping 20-period moving average at $98 and a nicely developing MACD below. On the weekly view, the picture is solid and consolidative after breaking higher.
On the daily chart, the 200-period moving average is providing support. Everything cited about the downtrend break as a reason for entry has held. The same level of support appears again at the recent lows, and even when the 200-day was violated, it lasted only two days before price moved right back above it. A possible short-term target zone is $139; traders would be quite enthused on a move over $139. Looking left on the chart to confirm the right side, that red line aligns with prior highs as well, so a move through $139–$140 could be the key objective for CoreWeave.
At the time of discussion, CoreWeave traded at roughly $115 and change, up more than 7% on the session.
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Summary of the Setups
All three names share a common technical theme: a break of a prior downtrend, a throwback or pullback to confirm support, and a near-term momentum thesis tied to a constructive overall market and the expectation that the FOMC meeting will pass without surprises.
- Amazon — hold $245; buy June 26 $250 calls near $3.75 or lower; target ~$8 on a move to $256; risk ~60%. Daily resistance at $255; long-term support at $240 and $216.
- CleanSpark — breakout above $19; July 17 $19 calls near $1.50; target $23 (52-week high) with premium potentially reaching $4.50 to $10; risk up to 100%. Key levels: $14.50 support, $17 short-run pivot, $21.50 structural breakout.
- CoreWeave — momentum toward $130 and beyond; July 10 weekly $130 calls near $3.50; potential premium of $10–$15; risk ~40%. Key levels: $110 (50-day SMA) support and $139–$140 daily target.
