VanEck's institutional playbook
VanEck, one of the largest financial institutions in America and worldwide with roughly $200 billion in client assets, bought the Bitcoin dip as an institution for the first time when Bitcoin hit 60K. It now tells clients to have their full Bitcoin and crypto position ready by October. The firm is selective and does not buy every dip.
Matthew Sigel, VanEck's head of digital asset research, respects the four-year cycle, which has been one reason for not buying every dip this year. When Bitcoin first hit 60K, he noticed one-sided positioning in the derivatives market, then a bounce into the low 80s that ran into the moving averages. On the retest, the same capitulation signals did not appear: liquidations and the premiums people pay for puts versus calls stayed muted. Puts remain expensive versus calls by historical standards, sitting around the 80th percentile, below the 99th percentile seen the first time Bitcoin hit 60K.
Signs of seller exhaustion are emerging. Realized losses sit in the 90th percentile historically, meaning people are dumping losses. Older cohorts, the two-year-plus holders, have slowed their selling. Sigel reads this as what is driving the Bitcoin bounce in the latter half of the week. He is still waiting and watching before getting more aggressive, and stresses it depends on individual positioning and risk-reward.
His recommended approach is time-based buying: add a few basis points every month or so until Q4. He can't say exactly what will happen, but the four-year pattern matched up well enough that it deserves respect.
Why institutions skip the first move
Sigel expects Bitcoin to be materially higher in one year. Institutions operate differently from retail: they don't mind missing the first 10 to 20% upswing and have cost-averaged all year. Much of the market will wait for a fundamental catalyst before getting excited, and people are fine missing that early gain if positive news follows.
The catalysts he watches: the Clarity Act, a strategic Bitcoin reserve the White House has teased since Vegas but has not delivered, and sovereign adoption. That last one is a continual story. Twenty-two countries now either mine Bitcoin or hold it at the sovereign level, a count rising by one or two countries a year. If that trend stopped or reversed, it would force a reevaluation. If Bitcoin is not above its all-time high by Q1 2028, that forces a thesis rethink. Otherwise, his position is to stay the course.
The Clarity Act deadline
It is crunch time. The Clarity Act has until August 7th to clear the Senate before lawmakers leave for summer recess, roughly 30 days out. Senator Cynthia Lummis frames it as a decision about whether America leads the next financial system or watches from the sidelines. Many of the largest and most conservative financial institutions are already acting as if the bill will pass, and the push on Congress and the White House is full force.
Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is urging Congress and the White House to pass the Crypto Clarity Act. He argues the technology will revolutionize the financial system for the better: faster, more efficient, more access, 24/7, better for the consumer and the economy. Opposing technological advancement is futile, he says, no different from resisting the ticker tape or electronic trading; you can't put it back in the box. Government has long lagged the market, taking nine or ten years to write rules for credit default swaps and electronic trading, but the crypto gap is extraordinarily long: crypto took off in 2009 and the rules still aren't in place. Companies want a referee that tells them where the lines are, what they can and can't do, which is what the aptly named Clarity Act would provide. Cuomo is hopeful because the US is getting pushed, pointing to what Europe has done with ESMA and MiCA, good for the industry and the consumer.
Chart read
With weekly bullish divergence sitting in a massive support zone, the setup looks constructive. The Bitcoin chart has looked far worse over the years, and there is a lot to be excited about with prices near rock bottom.
