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The Market Wants to Go Higher
Despite geopolitical headwinds — particularly tensions in the Middle East — the broader market is showing a persistent desire to push higher. Many expected a deeper pullback, but the price action tells a different story. The market is signaling that if geopolitical concerns can be cleared up, buyers are ready to step in. That said, this isn't the time for unbridled aggression. The bias is bullish, but caution is warranted as earnings season gets underway, with early reports from major financial and healthcare names already setting the tone.
Within this backdrop, three stocks present interesting opportunities heading into their respective earnings dates: Cloudflare, Twilio, and AST SpaceMobile. Each offers a distinct setup and trade thesis.
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Cloudflare (NET): A Pre-Earnings Decay Play
Cloudflare has been one of the more battered names in the software sector, falling more than 15% in just five trading sessions. The stock failed to overtake resistance near $230 and subsequently plunged, breaking below the critical $181 level — a zone that historically matched up with old highs and subsequent lows. Further downside support sits near $160, another repeated low point on the chart.
From a moving average perspective, Cloudflare is now trading below its long-term 251-day exponential moving average, which sits around $184. If price can recover and stabilize above that level, it would be a noteworthy bullish development. Meanwhile, the short-term 5-day EMA is trending lower and converging with the longer-term average, creating a confluence point worth watching. The RSI is below the 50 midline but hasn't yet dipped into oversold territory, leaving room for the stock to move in either direction.
The volume profile reveals that trading activity dries up significantly around the $165–$170 level, and from there, the stock has started to bounce. The point of control — the price level with the highest traded volume — sits at $193, offering a potential upside target.
The trade idea here is an iron condor — a neutral options strategy that profits from the stock staying within a defined range. Specifically, an April 24th expiration iron condor with strikes at $161/$165 and $190/$195, sold for approximately $250 in premium. This creates an even risk-reward scenario: $250 maximum gain versus $250 maximum loss. The thesis is straightforward — Cloudflare is likely to consolidate and chop sideways until its May 7th earnings report, allowing the trader to capture time decay. The key is to exit the position before earnings introduce a new wave of volatility.
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Twilio (TWLO): Riding Implied Volatility Into Earnings
Twilio hasn't been hit quite as hard as Cloudflare but has still experienced notable volatility. The stock has a gap level around $135, which has served as a meaningful reference point. More recently, it failed at the $138 resistance zone, while a relative low came in at $113. Below that, $105 represents a repeated low point that was significant around the last earnings event in mid-February.
The general trajectory for Twilio shows a narrowing pattern — lower highs and higher lows — as the stock compresses heading into its April 30th earnings report. The 251-day EMA once again proved its worth as a support level; after a brief dip below it, the stock rebounded and managed to close above. Three shorter-term exponential moving averages are converging between $124 and $125, creating another confluence zone that could act as a tipping point.
The volume profile shows a large node between $120 and $133, indicating heavy trading activity. Below that, another node near $115 aligns with recent lows. The point of control sits around $105, suggesting that the bulk of historical volume was traded at lower prices — a potentially strong support zone if earnings disappoint. Above $135, volume thins out considerably.
The trade here is a call calendar spread — buying longer-dated calls (post-earnings expiration) while selling shorter-dated calls (pre-earnings expiration). This strategy carries a slightly bullish bias, but the primary thesis is about implied volatility. With IV not particularly elevated yet, there's an opportunity to profit as implied volatility in the longer-dated options holds steady or increases heading into earnings, while the shorter-dated options sold will decay faster. The plan is to exit the position before the earnings event itself.
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AST SpaceMobile (ASTS): A Competitive Shakeup Creates Opportunity
AST SpaceMobile operates in the satellite-to-cellular space, competing against heavyweights like Starlink and Globalstar. The company boasts significant partnerships with AT&T and Verizon and has performed well year-to-date. However, a major piece of news shook the sector on the morning of analysis: Amazon announced it was acquiring Globalstar to power its Amazon LEO satellite service. This sent AST SpaceMobile shares down roughly 6.5%, as the market interpreted Amazon's investment in a competitor as a negative signal.
Ironically, the selloff may have created a better entry point. The stock dropped to around $92, which aligns with a key gap level at $93 on the chart. This level has served as a stabilization zone on multiple occasions — closing prices frequently clustered around it, and the stock's earlier big rally paused right at this level. To the upside, $107 represents a recent double-top resistance, and $121–$122 marks the best closing high. On the downside, $78 stands out as a repeated low point that was only briefly breached before a quick recovery.
The shorter-term moving averages — the 21-day and 63-day EMAs — are grinding sideways and clustering together near the $89–$91 range, making this area a potential inflection point. If the stock holds here, it could serve as a launching pad for a move higher; if it breaks down, those moving averages become resistance. The RSI's short-term uptrend line appears to be breaking, but the indicator remains above the 50 midline, so the picture isn't decisively bearish yet.
The volume profile confirms that the $80–$95 range has seen the heaviest recent trading activity. The stock currently sits near the upper edge of that zone. If it pushes higher, the next pocket of notable volume activity sits between $110 and $115, which could serve as a consolidation area.
The approach here is simpler than the options plays on the other two names — it's a directional buy. The Amazon-Globalstar news created a short-term dislocation, but AST SpaceMobile remains one of the blue-chip names in the space-based cellular sector. The $92 level represents a compelling entry for investors willing to look past the headline noise.
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Tying It All Together
These three setups highlight different approaches to navigating a volatile market during earnings season. Cloudflare offers a range-bound decay trade via an iron condor, capitalizing on the expectation that the stock will tread water before its report. Twilio presents an implied volatility play through a call calendar, exploiting the term structure of options pricing with a mild bullish lean. And AST SpaceMobile offers a straightforward directional opportunity, where competitive news has pushed the stock to a technically significant support level.
The common thread is disciplined risk management and an awareness of upcoming catalysts. In each case, the trade is structured around what the market is currently pricing, not a speculative bet on earnings outcomes. The market's underlying desire to move higher provides a supportive backdrop, but with earnings season accelerating, individual stock selection and trade structure matter more than ever.