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A Risk-On Morning: Three Stories Driving Markets
Markets opened with a distinctly risk-on tone, fueled by a confluence of geopolitical developments and corporate catalysts. Three stories stood out among the morning's biggest movers: gold's impressive rally, Palantir's deepening role in national defense, and Chewy's surprisingly strong earnings outlook.
Gold Surges Past $4,500 on Geopolitical Shifts
Gold climbed roughly three and a half percent, trading above $4,500 per troy ounce — a move driven by multiple intersecting forces. Reports of a 15-point peace proposal from Washington sent to Iran injected fresh uncertainty into markets. While Iranian state media pushed back on the proposal, the mere possibility of de-escalation reshaped the risk landscape.
Crude oil retreated below $88 per barrel, suggesting traders were pricing in reduced inflation risk from a potential diplomatic resolution. Gold miners rode the wave, with Newmont Mining up approximately 4% and Barrick Gold gaining nearly 3.75%.
What makes this rally structurally significant is the underlying demand picture. Central bank buying — a pattern that accelerated last year and has continued into 2026 — remains the key driver. Goldman Sachs reiterated a bullish call with a $5,400 per ounce target, anchored precisely in this institutional demand. Gold had pulled back from its January highs as concerns about higher interest rates and the rising opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset weighed on prices. Dollar strength also played a role in that correction. But the structural bullish case, underpinned by sovereign buyers diversifying reserves, remains intact.
Gold has increasingly traded like a risk asset rather than a pure safe haven, a behavioral shift worth monitoring closely.
Palantir and the $185 Billion Golden Dome
Shares of Palantir rose nearly 3% following a Wall Street Journal report that the company is part of a consortium developing the software backbone for the Pentagon's proposed Golden Dome missile defense system — a $185 billion initiative designed to counter ballistic, cruise, and even hypersonic threats.
Palantir is working alongside defense heavyweights Lockheed Martin, RTX, and Northrop Grumman, with the software reportedly expected to be ready for testing by summer 2026. One Pentagon official described the software layer as "the glue" connecting sensors, radar, and interceptors — a characterization that underscores just how central the data integration piece is to the system's viability.
For Palantir, this represents a potentially high-margin, long-term contract that reinforces its position at the intersection of artificial intelligence and national security. The company built its foundation on government work before aggressively expanding into commercial markets. Golden Dome could represent a return to that core strength at an entirely new scale. Rosenblatt reiterated a buy rating with a $200 price target, maintaining a constructive view despite persistent questions around valuation.
Palantir's stock has followed a familiar pattern — running hot, cooling off, then catching fire again. Golden Dome may provide the kind of durable, high-visibility catalyst that sustains momentum beyond the typical hype cycle.
Chewy Delivers a Win When It Needed One Most
Chewy's stock surged 13.5%, rallying to the top of pre-market expectations after delivering what amounted to a confidence-building quarter — not because the results were spectacular, but because the forward outlook was strong.
The numbers themselves were mixed. Earnings came in at 27 cents per share on an adjusted basis, just below the Street's 28-cent estimate. Revenue landed roughly in line with expectations at just above $3.25 billion. But the story was in the guidance and the customer metrics: active users grew 4%, and spending per customer continued to rise. Management signaled expanding margins and solid cash generation ahead, framing the company as exiting the year from a position of strength.
This mattered because the macro backdrop had investors worried. Rising inflation raised the question of whether households would cut discretionary spending — including on pet products. Chewy's outlook suggested that pet spending remains resilient, perhaps because so much of it is non-discretionary. Prescription pet food, automatic food shipments, and subscription models create a degree of stickiness that insulates revenue.
Still, Chewy trades at roughly $26, well below its most recent high near $48 — and a far cry from pandemic-era peaks. The competitive threat from Walmart and Amazon looms large. But the convenience factor is real: consumers who switched to home delivery of heavy pet food bags during the pandemic have shown little inclination to go back to hauling 30-pound bags from a store. If Chewy can sustain customer growth and margin expansion, a recovery toward prior highs is not out of the question — though the competitive moat remains narrower than bulls might hope.
The Bigger Picture
These three stories share a common thread: each reflects a market grappling with the tension between structural trends and near-term uncertainty. Gold's rally speaks to persistent sovereign demand meeting geopolitical anxiety. Palantir's rise reflects the growing premium placed on AI-driven defense capabilities. And Chewy's surge signals that consumer resilience, at least in certain categories, may be stronger than feared. Together, they paint a picture of a market that is cautiously leaning into risk — but watching the macro horizon closely.