Apple (AAPL) sits about a month from the expected iPhone 18 release. The iPhone 17 beat expectations, which stands out because the whole phone market is flat or falling in some regions. Europe is especially hard, with heavy price competition and the VAT tax squeezing sales; the same softness shows in the US. The 17 also sold well in China.
What the iPhone 18 brings
Standard iPhone 18 models get few big changes: a faster processor and a better operating system. The top model, the iPhone 18 Pro Max, is rumored to get a new camera with a physical aperture. Samsung (SSNLF) and some Chinese brands have done this before. If Apple keeps it, the Pro Max camera would work much like a true DSLR, which buyers of that phone would value. It is not a sure win. Samsung was rumored to use the same technology in its coming S27 Ultra but backed out for various reasons.
The first foldable
The headline product is Apple's first foldable, which will not be called the iPhone 18 Fold. It is expected to carry the name Ultra or something similar. The price should land between $2,000 and $2,500.
I expect it to sell very well, likely selling out day one, for a few reasons. The foldable market is now well established. Samsung just released its eighth generation of foldables. In China the foldable market is large, with many competitors making excellent hardware. The high price will not stop strong demand. Producing foldables in large numbers is hard, so Apple will have to manage retail supply carefully.
The foldable will almost certainly be announced this September, but it probably will not ship until October because of supply strain and production difficulty. Anyone who wants one should be able to get it, but likely only by ordering on the first day, so buyers must be ready for that price.
Camera quality across brands
Some people praise Google's (GOOGL) Pixel photos, but Apple still performs extremely well, especially in video, which it is best known for. Its still camera quality is also strong. Flagship phones from Samsung, Pixel, and Apple all shoot well now, and most people no longer care about the differences.
Long-term outlook and the 2027 redesign
2027 marks the 20th anniversary of the iPhone. I expect a major redesign or an anniversary edition. Rumors point to special displays and glass. Whether Apple can build it, and how much it can pull off, remains open. It could be a big deal.
The broader market is getting tough. Prices are rising across the board because of memory shortages tied to AI. Consumers are spending less, so the next couple of years will stay soft. Apple gets some credit because its buyers tend to have more money and do not mind spending it. Apple now also competes in the lower price tier with its E-series devices, and it can compete there too.
Beyond the foldable, I do not expect any major smartphone advances in the next few years. Every company will push AI, but I see little consumer interest. Younger buyers are at best indifferent to AI and at worst dislike it. AI will not be a strong selling point despite company efforts.
Risks and headwinds
China has strong brands: Xiaomi (XIACY), Huawei, and Oppo make some of the best phones in the world. Samsung and Apple benefit from US bans, so American consumers mostly do not know these devices unless they follow tech closely. Chinese makers have led on foldables for the last couple of years, ahead of everyone. Apple will likely keep struggling in China, as it did last quarter, while China works to support its own brands, which is normal for countries to do.
On supply chains, memory keeps driving up prices. AI drives up RAM demand, and new devices need more RAM to run the AI features companies say buyers want. That creates a cycle of rising costs, and consumers are not clearly convinced they need any of it.
A wish for the product line
One idea worth wanting: two phones on the same number, a large Pro model for work and a mini phone for going out. Carriers do not allow that. Google Voice, which still exists and accepts new sign-ups, can technically do it, but only with a new number, which no one wants.
