Nvidia (NVDA)
Options flow leans heavily bullish, with a steep call skew because expectations going in were low. The stock closed red in 10 of the last 12 trading sessions and had a 7-day losing streak, so the bar was low. Option traders had been betting to the upside for days.
Today call volume ran about four times the normal daily average of the past week. Nearly 4 million calls traded versus about 1.8 million puts. Put volume was still about three times its normal daily average. The stock rose more than 8% on the day and is up 22% on the year, now only about 4% off its all-time highs from May. It had been stuck between about 190 and 210 for the past month and a half to two months.
Today's move added about $400 billion in market cap in one day - roughly the full size of Costco (COST), Bank of America (BAC), or Cisco (CSCO). The record quarter showed a 106% year-over-year revenue jump and a revenue growth outlook of 70% for fiscal year 2028. The one weak spot was margins, down to 74% for the current quarter, and possibly bottoming at 71% to 72% over the next year or two.
A lot of short-term speculative bets landed in the August 28th weekly cycle, aimed at one-day moves. The notable trade was further out, in September monthly options that expire in about 22 days. Early this morning a trader bought over 20,000 of the 230 strike calls at an average debit of $4.50. Break-even is 234.50, only about 2.5% to 3% above the current price, so the position is already working. Calls traded at more than double the put volume in the session.
The NASDAQ sits at resistance at this level. The breakout is only a couple percent away, which looks doable, yet that final push above resistance is hard to make.
SpaceX (SPCX)
Shares are up nearly 30% this month and back above the $135 IPO price after a choppy stretch. The main news: $100 billion is being invested in its largest launch facility, in Louisiana, built to support thousands of launches per year. Morgan Stanley (MS) noted at least three Starship pads should be operational by the end of 2027.
This follows the release of the Grok 4.6 AI model, which is performing well. The buyout of Cursor and folding its data into the new Grok model made real improvements in recent performance. The model is catching up to competitors, likely passing OpenAI and closing on Anthropic's Claude.
Lockups hit on September 9th and 10th - key near-term dates. There are rolling lockup expirations that run into next June, when Elon Musk's own shares come up.
The trade was in September 18th monthly options, expiring in 22 days. A trader bought 5,000 of the 150 strike calls, about $10 out of the money, at an average debit of about $3.80. Break-even is 153.80, roughly 10% above the current price. Given how choppy the trade is, a 10% move in three weeks is possible.
Oracle (ORCL)
The stock is up about 15% this month but down nearly 25% for 2026. It sat relatively flat today even while tech gained across the board, and remains about 57% off its all-time highs from last September, post earnings.
Oracle has done many deals and taken on a lot of debt. It is expected to burn another $90 billion over the next couple of years building AI data centers. Free cash flow is currently negative.
Yesterday Citi (C) put out a positive note: an upside 90-day catalyst watch, a buy rating, and a $330 price target. Citi said investor capitulation and technical selling drove the decline, but strong AI demand can push estimate revisions and the stock higher, and called it a buy at current levels.
In today's options, a trader bought over 3,000 of the September 18th 165 strike calls, out of the money, at an average debit just under $5. Break-even is just under 170, about 13% above the current price. The likely setup is earnings on September 10th, a possible catalyst that should give more clarity on the debt load, the partnerships, the data center buildouts, and whether growth is accelerating. Investors need good news from that report, and this trader may be positioning for an upside surprise.
