Stock futures opened modestly higher, and the reason sits in two prices. Crude oil dropped from $96 to just over $90.50. The 10-year Treasury yield fell from 5.26% to 5.22%. Both are the forces that have driven the market for weeks and months. When they fall, stocks gain. Crude is now at $90 - far below 93, 95, or the earlier highs of 120. Ongoing US-Iran diplomacy keeps pressure on oil prices. Both figures ticked slightly higher over the past hour, and news could push them either way fast.
The market is waiting on a heavy load of economic data due later in the week: Jolts job openings, consumer confidence at 10 a.m., PCE, and jobs numbers. Jolts kicks off four days of labor market data. Earnings are light, but Micron (MU) reports tomorrow and matters.
Housing prices and affordability
The Case-Shiller home price index came in at 9:00 Eastern. The 20-city adjusted month-over-month rose 0.3, better than expected. The 20-city unadjusted was unchanged. The 20-city unadjusted year-over-year rose 2.5%, above the 2.1% expected. The FHFA house price index showed similar numbers: up 0.3 month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, both slightly better than expected.
These firm prices are a mild surprise given where rates sit, and firm prices count as good news for the housing market. The median home price recently slipped under $400,000, which was welcome. But mortgage rates stay above 7%, and weekly mortgage applications for both new loans and refinances keep showing down arrows. The housing picture is still delicate.
High rates do not stop people from buying - they make people wait. What matters to a buyer is the monthly payment and whether they can afford it. If rates come down, those monthly payments come down too, so overall affordability improves. The Trump administration, with Kevin Warsh in focus, is watching this closely, which makes the interest rate debate over the next couple of months worth following.
AI leaders at the White House
Tech CEOs are gathering in Washington today for a lunch with President Trump to discuss AI safety. Attendees: Dario Amodei of Anthropic, Mark Zuckerberg of Meta (META), Sundar Pichai of Google (GOOGL), Jensen Huang of Nvidia (NVDA), Alex Karp of Palantir (PLTR), and Greg Brockman of OpenAI.
The goal is to share concerns and ideas and set a path forward. The leaders do not want to slow AI production or fall behind China, but they want to make sure it stays safe to use. Putting smart people in one room to talk through the problem is how business gets done, and gathering them in Washington to map the path deserves credit.
Safety work is already moving. Nvidia (NVDA) built an open agent safety platform. Anthropic has written about the dangers of AI agents in its own materials. The meeting also follows the recent visit by President Xi Jinping, with the next US-China meeting set for November.
Watch crude oil and 10-year yields - those will drive the market this month.
