A Loaded Earnings Week
178 names in the S&P 500 and 32 in the NASDAQ report this week. Earnings and revenue have been beating expectations and showing confidence in fundamentals. Strong earnings don't always push the stock higher. Meta Platforms (META) is the example: solid numbers, but the stock went lower. The market builds expectations in advance, so the real mover is the surprise against those expectations, in earnings, economic data, or the Fed.
The calendar: Verizon (VZ) reported today. Tomorrow brings Boeing (BA) and Coca-Cola (KO), both Dow components that move the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Wednesday brings Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOGL). Thursday brings Amazon (AMZN), Intel (INTC), Starbucks (SBUX), and SanDisk (SNDK). A headline-driven week.
Economic Data
Durable goods come out tomorrow morning. Thursday is the big day, with the first look at third-quarter GDP, expected to rise from 2.2% to 3.1% - a nice jump. Personal income and outlays also arrive, carrying the PCE inflation reading.
Crude oil is lower to start the week but has stayed near $100 for most of the month, so energy will dominate the PCE numbers. The forecast: headline PCE up half a percent month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year. Core PCE up 0.3% month-over-month, a tenth higher, and 3.1% year-over-year, also a tenth higher. Trends matter more than any single print, whether earnings or inflation.
New home sales are worth watching. The 30-year mortgage rate got up around 7.50%, then came down a little last week for the first time in many weeks. It is still above 7%, so not at great levels. The housing market has been paralyzed, but it may get some life back now that yields have topped out and fallen below 5%. All housing data is critical for home builders, Home Depot (HD), and Lowe's (LOW). The 10-year yield drives mortgage rates.
The Fed
The FOMC meeting starts tomorrow, with the decision at 2 PM Wednesday. The CME FedWatch tool shows less than a 10% chance of a move. The Fed chair never wants to surprise the markets, so no move is expected right before an election with odds that low. There is no November meeting; December is the next one. December odds have fallen to about 73% - still high, but threatening to come off recent highs. The market still prices in a cut between now and next summer. Expect comments on the overall economy at the press conference.
Market Setup
Crude oil is lower. The 10-year yield is back below 5%, down from 5.3%. The VIX is at 19, still elevated but off recent highs. The dollar is roughly flat, slightly higher. A good macroeconomic setup to open the week, though it can shift fast - geopolitics and elections a week away are both still in play.
Anthropic Files to Go Public
Anthropic has applied to list its Class A common stock on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ANT. It filed an SEC prospectus, released around 9 AM Eastern, moving the AI lab a step closer to a historic offering. The latest valuation was about $965 billion, nearly a trillion dollars. The IPO is likely before Thanksgiving but after the elections, most likely in November. Next come the road show, pricing, and values.
Anthropic is backed by Amazon Web Services and was started by former OpenAI founders. It is a major challenger to OpenAI. OpenAI has pushed its own IPO back to 2027, and reports now point to less revenue than originally expected for OpenAI.
