Meta Platforms (META) reports quarterly results after the bell today. The company recently launched its AI agent, Muse, which pushed shares higher. Expectations: about $63.4 billion in revenue and $3.45 in adjusted earnings per share. Shares slipped along with the broader selloff over the past week but remain up more than 5% year to date.
The Three-Year Picture
On a three-year weekly chart, META traded below $280 a share about three years ago. It rose to all-time highs into the middle of 2025, then chopped and pulled back, followed by another jump over the last month and a half. The stock is still up nearly 150% from those three-year lows, a strong return, though trade has been more volatile over the last 12 months. The big pop came from the Muse release, which drove near-parabolic moves up.
The One-Year View and Momentum
Drill down to a one-year daily chart and the volatility stands out: META is only up about 5% so far in 2026, choppy trade. The 50-day simple moving average trended lower through 2026 until the Muse release in early September. The 50-day has now crossed above the 200-day moving average, the golden cross that many technicians watch as a sign of possible upside momentum.
The stock is up about 33% from its March low near $520 a share, solid progress. Momentum has cooled recently. The RSI sits near 46, below the 50 line, and has trended lower over the last few sessions. META is in a four-session losing streak, which becomes five if it closes red today.
Key levels: the 659 area is a point of context in the volume profile and may act as near-term support. To the upside, heavy volume sits near $740 a share, a possible resistance zone heading into the report.
The Trade Setup
Implied volatility is elevated, though not historically high. The options market is pricing a one-day move of plus or minus about $27. Typically META sees a plus or minus 6% move by the end of the week, but on a one-day basis it is only about a 4% move in either direction.
META is a $690 stock, expensive on a dollar basis, so you can take a directional bias while staying passive and still use the higher implied volatility. The pick is a neutral-to-bullish short put vertical, which gives a better probability of success and pushes the break-even well below the current price.
Using the October 23rd weekly options, which expire in two days on Friday: sell the 660 strike put and buy the 640 strike put, a $20-wide spread. That collects a credit of roughly $5, so the most you can make is $500 per spread, with about $1,500 at risk. More risk than reward, but the break-even drops to 655, about 5% below the current share price, with META set to open around $691.
The probability that the 660 strike you sell finishes out of the money at expiration is nearly 70%. The setup profits if the stock goes higher, consolidates, or even drifts lower, as long as it stays above the 655 break-even.
