Super Micro (SMCI) stock jumped 23% after the company released preliminary results tied to a record order backlog and a much higher forecast for gross margins. The stock was up more than 7% at one point and traded around $31.30.
The numbers
Fourth-quarter revenue is expected to land within the range the company gave before, but near the low end of $11 billion to $12.5 billion. Analysts had looked for $11.73 billion, so it could be a slight miss; the actual figure is not out yet.
That got overshadowed by the backlog. Total new orders topped $60 billion in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, a record set at the end of 2025. Those orders will be delivered over future quarters.
The company also expects gross margin of 15% to 17%, nearly double its earlier range of 8.2% to 8.4%. It credits "favorable customer and product mix."
The business
Super Micro designs and builds servers and data center systems that use chips from Nvidia, Intel, and AMD. Last month its CEO congratulated Elon Musk on SpaceX's IPO and revealed the company is co-building another gigawatt AI data center for SpaceX and xAI, due within the year.
The ride has been rough. Before this move, the stock was down about 13% year-to-date. It tumbled in June after the company said it had to raise equity to buy parts and fill $39 billion in AI server orders.
What the analysts say
Barclays raised its price target to $38 from $34, keeping an equal weight rating. It points to the low-end June revenue, the far higher margin guidance, and the $60 billion backlog. A modest $4 bump.
Rosenblatt raised its target to $45 from $40 with a buy rating. It expects a margin-driven Q4 beat and says the $60 billion in new orders confirms Super Micro's industry-leading speed to market and its power to profit from the AI infrastructure buildout. Rosenblatt calls the recent pullback an attractive entry point. The full report is due August 11.
An example trade
One way to play it: fade the news with a bearish options position, using contracts that expire before earnings to avoid earnings risk. The setup is a "Texas hedge," an unofficial term. Sell next week's 32/34 call spread and at the same time buy next week's 30/28 put spread. The debit paid for the put spread is covered by selling the call spread, so the whole trade can be done for zero, no credit and no debit. Spreads are used on both legs so the risk is capped and there is no unlimited downside.
