The 2026 IPO Report Card
The 2026 IPO market earns a B minus overall, judged across three areas.
Volume: grade C. There have been 232 IPOs, about a 4% rise from last year. This sits at expectations. The year started hot, then cooled off.
Proceeds: grade A minus. IPOs raised $99 billion, a 200% jump from last year. The dollars were strong but selective, going to very specific types of deals.
Trading performance: grade C. 55% of this year's IPOs trade above their IPO price.
The market has been graded on a curve because of steady outside shocks. January and February brought tariffs. February brought a "SPAC-apocalypse." March brought the Iran conflict. Spring and summer brought inflation and Fed rates swinging down then up. In July, Iran flared again. All of this pushed up the VIX (a measure of market fear) and added volatility. At the start of the year the outlook was for maybe a 20% increase in activity. Results came in strong but selective, and many companies are lined up for the fall and next year.
Selectivity and the Winning Sectors
Selectivity will keep going through the rest of the year. The pattern works like a reunion rock tour: the greatest hits draw a strong "yes," while newer, unproven names draw doubt.
Life sciences and healthcare stays the top-performing sector, with 23 companies on file, many that have not yet flipped their filing (made it public). AI and AI-adjacent names remain very strong. Industrials, including defense tech and aerospace, has a good amount of activity. A queue of technology, B2B, B2C, materials, and energy companies will send selected names through to test the waters, and investors and bankers will then gauge appetite for the next batch.
The Return of the SPAC
In 2021 there were 400 to 500 SPACs. This year there have been 141, making up about 60% of all IPOs. This is a healthy, functioning part of the market. A SPAC is a blank-check company that goes public, then looks for a target company to merge with later. Companies that cannot get banker or investor attention for a traditional IPO can still go public through a DESPAC transaction (the merger step). Expect a lot of these in 2026 and 2027.
A company usually has three paths to go public: a traditional IPO, a reverse merger (finding a shell company), or a DESPAC transaction. It can also sell itself outright, giving nearly four ways to get liquidity. A CEO or CFO wants optionality, the ability to pursue more than one path.
Timing Around the Midterms
Activity will happen both before and after the midterm elections. Some companies on file will aim to price before the midterms, with a push of firms flipping their filings to get out in time. Midterm elections bring a lot of noise into the system, so many companies will not target November or December. January, February, and March in the first quarter of 2027 are a good window too. That gives roughly a six-month window of strong IPO activity.
Three Lessons for Going Public
Across 275 IPOs worth $4 trillion, three lessons stand out.
First, know your numbers. The name of the game is "beat and raise." A company that goes public and misses its numbers, especially with retail investors, goes into the penalty box for about a year.
Second, have a sense of generation two and three products, not just the first product. Investors and bankers look at revenue growth and earnings expansion, so you need a clear path to scale.
Third, build the foundation and be public-company ready. This takes 12 to 18 months. Companies that rush the preparation end up scrambling once public, unable to run earnings calls or operate as a best-in-class public company. That readiness is what makes day one successful.
Anthropic Set to Beat OpenAI Public
SpaceX was one of the biggest IPOs, valued at $1.75 trillion.
The next mega deal expected this year is Anthropic, and it is almost certain to happen. Anthropic has been holding testing-the-water meetings in the Bay Area, with bankers flying in to do the pitch, a key milestone on the way to going effective. Its numbers are strong: a $65 billion run rate, a ninefold jump from roughly $10 billion last year, and 300,000 enterprise users. The discussion points to a $2 trillion valuation, above SpaceX's $1.75 trillion. There is a lot of appetite, and it is a long-term growth story.
OpenAI still has more work to do. Its numbers are likely not nearly as impressive, and it wants a strong valuation. Anthropic will be first.
