Market backdrop
The market stays near all-time highs and is very sensitive to news. Trouble in the Middle East pushed prices down fast, since traders fear the conflict will grow. The overall trend still looks bullish, and stocks have mostly absorbed the last two weeks of news. Bond yields keep rising, but stocks have not dropped hard on that yet. AI and tech names are among the weakest today. Buyers are passive, more risk-off than risk-on - like being in an "air pocket," waiting for the next move.
SpaceX (SPCX)
The IPO lockup has expired, so all shares now trade freely, yet the stock still holds above its IPO price. It defended its lows twice, most recently the day before the lockup expiry - and finished up that day. That signaled the fear of shares flooding the market was overblown. Since then it has held up and started climbing.
Trade idea: the 8/28 expiration, 145 strike calls, bought at 5.50 or lower. Risk about 35% of allocation; upside near 80%. The 135 price is critical. If it holds, the stock could break above 150 and push toward 165-170 in the near term. In a strongly bullish market, SPCX could stand out more than some AI names.
Key levels: 135 is the IPO price, 150 is where it opened. On an hourly chart (used because the stock has traded only a short time), 136 is a recent relative low and marks a double top after earnings, and 150 is a double-top ceiling. Old resistance often becomes new support. Another old high near 176 is possible resistance. The recent path is an upward trend line. On the daily RSI, momentum sits above the 50 midline but risks breaking below its green trend line - watch that and the 50 level. The 20-day simple moving average sits at 124.75 as possible support. Volume profile shows heavy trading at 149-163 (a pause zone above 150) and another heavy area at 135-140. The stock trades down about 3% at 141.68, still above 135.
CoreWeave (CRWV)
A "neo cloud" growth name that gets hit hard on pullbacks. Down more than 8% today but up over 30% in the past month. The stock trades around 97, moving roughly $8 to $9 a day.
Trade ideas: if 98 holds, buy the 8/28 102 calls at 4.75, allocating only 25% of risk. Upside could reach 108-125 in the near term. If it drops instead, watch 92 - the 200-day simple moving average plus a cluster of other key indicators. A buyer at 92 could use the 98 strike at 4.75, 4.50 or lower with a small 25% allocation; the short-term return could approach 100%. For now patience is the play, and 92 is the likely entry.
Key levels: 95 marks the start of an old gap and was a repeated bottom, then became resistance, and is near the current low. Further downside: 85 (a relative low), 69 (a low close that acted as a floor from November to about April), and 60.55 (the ultimate low before a bounce). Upside resistance: an old high at 115, and 126 where a gap began with little activity above. Moving averages converge at 91-93 - the 21, 63, and 251 exponential averages all meet there. RSI is above the 50 midline, but both a short-term and even shorter green trend line have broken, so momentum has no clear direction. Volume profile shows nodes near 105 and 115-120, but most trading is lower; the point of control is 78.86, with heavy volume between 73 and 100. The stock trades at 97.32, slipping toward 92 rather than holding 98.
Circle (CRCL)
Crypto stocks held up well and were strong performers over the past two days, and CRCL stands out most. It had a pop in spring and another in early summer, gained ground over the past month, but badly lags the market over the past 52 weeks. Its chart shows clearer breakout potential than MSTR, Coinbase (COIN), or Robinhood (HOOD). It defended its lows hard today.
Trade idea: the 8/28 75 strike, bought around 2.50, with a bid up to $3. Use 50% risk - about $150 to see the outcome. If it breaks above 76, it could march toward 84, likely at least pushing on 80; getting through 80 makes 84 relatively easy. It keeps holding support and trying to bid up while other tech and momentum names break lower. Lower risk, possible big reward - the chart allows the breakout, the open question is whether it breaks out, and the risk looks worth it.
Key levels: 78 is a repeated low near the 77.50 break-even. Breaking into that area opens a retest of an old double bottom before a gap down near 90. The downward blue trend line has broken; a new short-term upward white trend line sits right at current price. Downside: 59 (a repeated floor) and 49 (recent lows), a line to watch if things weaken. Moving averages are more spread out; the faster 5-day EMA is overtaking slower ones and has crossed above the 21-day. The 5-day EMA sits near 72.40, close to the trend line - a confluence. The 63-day EMA at 75.17 sits overhead as resistance. RSI is 55.80, in bullish territory but not showing a strong trend. Volume profile shows a node at 60-74 and the heaviest area, the point of control, near 84 - a consolidation zone and hurdle; above about 87 lies thinly traded space where prices can move fast. The stock trades at 72.81, down about 2.3% today.
