Market backdrop
Today's inflation data came in less bad than feared, better than expected. After a run of data points that felt like negatives, a number that was not a train wreck is encouraging, though not amazing. What matters most is the market's reaction, which was positive.
Caterpillar (CAT) fits the wider theme: expansion plus productivity gains from AI. Heavy concentration in AI stocks is now holding up the whole market. Long-term investors with more exposure have reason to worry about that. My work is short-term trading - day trading and swing trading - and I welcome high concentration, because it makes clear which stocks to trade. When you run scans and check charts, the same names keep showing up. All three ideas today are repeat ideas.
Micron (MU) reports soon. Expect a blowout report - the story should be "we can't make enough memory, we're backed up for years" because every hardware play is buying all they have. Still, be cautious into earnings: great numbers can still sell off if the market is disappointed. An 8,000 index target is reasonable and looks conservative by year-end, especially past the midterms, as long as nothing too scary happens.
Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia is hard not to love because of Jensen Huang. While OpenAI and Anthropic (Dario Amodei, Sam Altman) push their own paths, Nvidia just wants to power everything. OpenAI and Anthropic both need Nvidia. This echoes the PC era: Microsoft DOS made computers usable for everyone, then Windows 3.11 and Windows 95 took off, and hardware makers said "we don't care what operating system you run, just buy our hardware." Nvidia is that hardware maker today.
Demand shows up everywhere - consumer, prosumer, and commercial enterprise. The DGX Spark now costs about $2,000 more than when first discussed, a sign of demand. Government sites and services are being pulled together with AI (America.gov), which is a striking shift.
NVDA is up about 1.25% on the session. It could be both a near-term trade and a long-term hold.
Chart: recent action forms an upward-sloping channel. Price declined after failing to take out old highs near 236.54, with prior highs near 232 and 230 marking a resistance zone. The upward channel off the recent lows still holds. Today is on pace to print a harami candle - a small green real body fully inside the prior day's larger red real body (real body = distance from open to close), often a sign momentum may stall. The 5-day EMA sits at 227.68, near the trend line; a break well below it could push price toward the 21-day EMA at 223. RSI had been falling but may be breaking above its recent highs and its downward red trend line, a bullish sign. Volume profile shows a node at 218-223 below current price, a possible foothold if things weaken.
Bloom Energy (BE)
Years back this stock traded at eight or nine dollars - cool, new tech, containerized battery packs that few knew about. It ran hard, got loosely tied to SpaceX news, and was added to the S&P 500, rare for a former single-digit stock. Like NVDA, it keeps trying to break out; an attempt a couple months ago failed and sold off hard, and it is back in its old range.
Trade view: if BE can reach and clear the 310-320 area, that would be enough momentum on the "one, two, three times a lady" test. A break of 310-320 gives good odds of all-time highs, which brings FOMO buying that pushes it higher.
BE is down about 4% today, trading at 279.32. On Monday it was one of the worst performers, yesterday one of the best.
Chart: old highs at 351.28, next highs at 320, both far off. A downward-sloping trend line was broken, while the longer upward blue trend line still holds. Price has moved into a rising wedge, its two boundary lines converging. Recent highs near 284 were briefly taken but price fell back below. Old highs and later lows form a green line at 254, a possible support if the trend line breaks. The 5-day EMA is near 279 and the 21-day EMA near 264; the 21-day EMA lines up closely with the trend line. RSI is triangular and more sideways than price, which has an upward bias, but RSI stays above the 50 midline. Watch for breaks of those boundaries for direction. Volume profile shows a node at 265-295 that price failed to clear, and price now sits back in the middle of that heavy-volume area.
SpaceX (SPCX)
SpaceX draws parallels to the post-war boom, the space race, and the military buildup - rockets, AI, and military tech from names like Anduril and Saronic, plus Swarm AI, all filtering down. Grok has helped many users, and its multi-agent infrastructure launched this week. OpenAI, Anthropic, and others buy compute from SpaceX. This is called the greatest company and greatest stock in a lifetime; the future is unknown, but the case is strong.
The chart sits back at the break-even point where people piled in pre-IPO, now stuck in the 150-160 level, with 155-160 acting as resistance. Constant positive news flow and innovation capture attention, which drives buying. A clean break above 155-160 could quickly send it back toward its wild early-day levels. Wait for a breakout of the range before buying.
SPCX is up about half a percent, trading at 150.7, about seven cents below its opening price and near where it opened on its first trading day. It has only traded since June. It spiked sky-high in its first few days and has not come near those levels; even with successful launches (including yesterday's), it is up only about 1% this week.
Chart: IPOs can be very volatile early. SPCX is now sideways, with a repeated low near 130 and messier highs - a modestly upward to sideways trend. Successive highs sit near 150 and 157, with 172 a notable old high before the decline. Low-volatility periods can act as a springboard into high volatility: when an entrenched range breaks, it triggers a cascade of orders and a breakout move, so the quiet stretch can be the calm before the storm. The 20-day simple moving average is at 149.26, very close to price; the 50-day SMA is at 137.47. RSI is above the 50 midline and breaking above its downward red trend line, a bullish bias. Volume profile differs from the other charts due to less data, but 136-158 is the key range, with the point of control (red line) near 150.
