Market backdrop: stocks look resilient. Interest rates are easing today even as crude oil keeps climbing, which shifts sentiment ahead of tomorrow's non-farm payrolls jobs report. Jobless claims came out today. Traders wait on the jobs report for a clearer read on the Fed's path. A lot of bearishness has been heavily pre-announced going into September. When a move gets telegraphed this openly, the market often does the opposite, and part of today's push higher is a pushback against that bearish story.
Verizon (VZ) - buy
Verizon is up 23% year-to-date, beating the market, and sits about a dollar off its 52-week highs. The stock looks set to push above a technical resistance level that capped it earlier in the year.
The trade: buy the stock and pair it with selling the January 55 call, which was trading around $1.10. That gives a little over 2% return against the stock over the next four months. The main idea is to own the stock long term for the roughly 5.6% to 6% annual dividend yield, which is attractive for diversification, while also capturing option premium and any move higher. Even if the calls expire worthless, owning the stock still pays. Setting the January 2027 call gives about a year to manage the tax outcome if the position is closed.
Chart detail: the intraday high came in at 51.68, within striking distance. The price pattern is a rising wedge - a trend line across the lows and another across the highs, converging, with a steeper slope on the bottom. That shape is usually read as slightly bearish, but take it lightly; it can break either way. The signal is a push beyond either line. On the upside, a strong close above the recent ceiling near 50.75 would make the old highs near 51.68 the next target. On the downside, watch 49.12 (a relative low) and 48. The 5-day EMA and dark blue weekly EMA line up with the trend line near 50.18, a support cluster if breached. The 21-day EMA (teal) sits at 49. RSI is following a rising green trend line; a break above 70 into overbought would signal more strength, especially if old highs get taken out. Volume profile shows most trading between 49 and 51, with a spike near 50.50. Below 49, activity thins out.
Newmont (NEM) - technical setup
Newmont is up close to 70% over 52 weeks and up more than 4% today, trading at 130.80. It gave back some ground but now looks set to recapture upside momentum. The challenge ahead is a January-February double top it has not cleared. If it breaks above, there is further upside. Newmont is seen as a gold miner, but heavy exploration into copper should help going forward. Copper and silver are both important for the AI infrastructure buildout.
Chart detail: this setup looks stronger than Verizon's. Old intraday highs were near 135. After a pullback and a swoon, price rallied fast and made a better intraday high of 135.29, with a higher close far above previous highs. Now there is a mild pullback. The 121 level, which was a repeated ceiling after a gap down, acted as a floor that price tested but did not break. One reading is a triangle from two converging trend lines; another is a bull flag - a sharp rally followed by a brief sideways-to-down consolidation. If the bull flag plays out, watch for a push above 135, especially with a break above the trend line. Price holds above the 5-day weekly EMA at 127.47; the teal monthly EMA is at 121.79. RSI was falling but is breaking above its downward red trend line today; a breakout plus RSI above 70 would be confirming signals together. Volume profile shows a node at 124 to 127 (price stays above it), with heavier activity between 105 and 120.
SPCX (SpaceX) - defined-risk call spread
SPCX trades near 149 and change, up more than 6% today at 149.22. It has been public almost three months. After the initial revaluation, heavy selling, and many naysayers, it has found its footing. If it takes out the 150 level and holds momentum, it could see meaningful price gains over the next month or two. Some traders argue it is only a good buy below the IPO price.
The trade: a defined-risk 150/180 October call spread, 43 days to expiration - about a month and a half to capture a breakout above 150. Break-even is 157.40. Risk-reward is a little over 3 to 1. Defining the downside matters in case the charts give a false signal and price falls off, while still allowing large upside on a breakout above 150.
Chart detail: 150 is the red line where price has topped several times, and it sits close again today. Above it, 176 stands out as a significant peak reached shortly after the IPO, where buyers made a stand before an eventual decline. On support, the first green line near 136 often stopped price but was breached; 130 also came into play as old highs and a post-earnings high with repeated lows. If 130 breaks, it opens the door toward 107. With limited data, the hourly chart helps because technical analysis is fractal and works across time frames; the daily chart shows a gap at the front from missing data, but RSI is trending up and making higher highs. Simple moving averages: the 20-day (olive) at 140, and a longer-term darker blue one near 136, with price crossing above the longer-term average. Volume profile shows the heaviest node at 132 to 142, containing the point of control (the thickest red line). Price has broken above that into the 149 to 163 zone. Above 163 there is very little trading activity, so prices could move faster with breakout activity once old highs clear.
