The Clarity Act gets new life
The White House has reportedly agreed on an ethics package for the Crypto Clarity Act. Journalist Eleanor Tourett first reported it, then confirmed she is hearing from multiple industry sources that the White House agreed on the ethics package and sent the language to certain Senate Republicans that afternoon.
This clears one of the biggest roadblocks. Democrats had demanded stronger ethics rules over worry that President Trump and his family could gain from their crypto holdings. Trump has now reportedly accepted rules covering conflicts of interest, more disclosure, and stronger protection for investors. With that issue handled, lawmakers can move forward with revised crypto text. Republicans are largely on board, and Democrat support is growing.
One proposed change: the DOJ would enforce the law instead of state attorney generals. This makes sense, since having state attorney generals as enforcers creates too scattered a setup to give the industry clear rules. The securities intermediaries definition is still a sticking point. The industry wants "decentralized" to mean decentralized in the definition, and dislikes the current wording. The details are small and tricky, but the bill is almost there.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant told the press the act is at the "one yard line," meaning 99% done. On prediction markets, the odds of the Clarity Act passing in 2026 have risen to 57%.
The timeline
There are 13 working days left. The bill needs to hit the Senate floor next week, before the August 10th through September 11th recess. It has to get done before the August recess. The House is done for the week, but the Senate stays in session for a couple more weeks. The biggest remaining issue is waiting for Democrats to read the new negotiated amendments, some tied to the ethics piece. It may not get done this week.
Why it matters
Right now, before clarity, the industry holds about $340 billion in stablecoins and tokenized assets. That is about $40 billion less than the $380 billion held by a single platform, Robin Hood, so there is a lot of room to grow.
The Genius Act, already passed, set the standard for what stablecoins must look like. The next unlock for crypto is the Clarity Act. Genius set the rules for stablecoins, but the industry now needs the roads and infrastructure. For banks, broker dealers, fintechs, and remittance players to build that infrastructure, they need to know they have 10 to 20 year time horizons where the technology stays useful. The Clarity Act gives them that certainty. That message resonated across both sides of the aisle, according to the co-founder and CEO of Anchorage, who spent a day on the hill this week and also said the industry was "99% there." If both pro-crypto bills come together, crypto liquidity should explode.
Other market moves
BlackRock withdrew 1,700 Bitcoin worth $120 million from Coinbase. They had been buying for five straight days, including while extreme fear gripped crypto, and are now withdrawing. Many people wish they had bought during extreme fear in the last bear market.
Russia signed into law its own version of a crypto clarity act.
The biggest headwind for Bitcoin, crypto, and likely all risk assets is the Iran war. It is unclear to the American public whether Trump can wind it down. Asked about the plan, and whether it is just to keep bombing until Iran gives up, Trump pushed back, saying there are no signs of that and that behind the scenes Iran wants to meet desperately to end the fighting because they are getting decimated. He said the US has no interest until Iran is ready to meet in a meaningful way.
Bitcoin price outlook
Despite fear, uncertainty, and doubt, Bitcoin rallied to almost $67,000. This is the part of the cycle where sidelined people get anxious, but the anxiety may sit more on the bulls, because another failed rejection or weak breakout feels exhausting and toppy. A large breakout candle with volume is needed to spark FOMO. It is starting to look better, but Bitcoin sits at major resistance, a level that used to be support and has failed before. There is rotation without expansion, so major volume and capital need to come in. If Bitcoin can hold above $73,000, that would be a very bullish sign.
Bottom signals keep stacking up. This is only the third weekly bullish divergence on record. Both earlier instances marked absolute bottoms, and the third just fired. A separate signal, Bitcoin percentage of supply in profit, has predicted every bear market bottom in history and is flashing again now. I am very bullish on what comes next for crypto, and most people do not realize it.
