A New Draft, A One-Week Window
A new crypto Clarity Act draft has been published. The Senate Banking version and the House Agriculture Committee version have been merged, and an ethics provision was added for the first time. Next comes a motion to proceed, expected the same day or Tuesday, setting up a possible Senate floor vote the week of August 3rd. Coinbase's chief policy officer expects a vote as early as Monday of next week. Senate Leader Thune voiced some doubt about clearing all the issues teed up before August, but his commitment to getting the Clarity Act done before August still holds. The hope is the Senate leaves for its August recess with a bipartisan win in hand.
The Clarity Act has been the major fundamental catalyst worth tracking all year. It could pass or not pass. Either way, Bitcoin and crypto are not going away. But if it passes, Bitcoin's price goes up.
The Bull Case: Not Priced In
Charles Schwab's head of crypto research lays out the case: Clarity Act passage is not priced into Bitcoin at these levels. Daily odds of the Act passing in 2026 have been tracked against many factors driving Bitcoin's day-to-day price. On average, year to date, those odds - whether rising or falling - explain only about 4% of Bitcoin's daily price move. That low number is the evidence the market has not priced passage in.
This matters two ways. If the Act gets delayed past summer recess, the odds of it passing before the midterms drop sharply, because recess turns into campaign season. But a delay would not be a negative for Bitcoin's price, since passage was never priced in to start. On the flip side, if it passes in the next couple weeks, it acts like a legislative call option. Earlier this year, the launch of crypto trading at one firm and a high-profile ETP launch at another large financial institution, both in the spring, drove Bitcoin up about 25% by reviving the institutional adoption story. Clarity passing could reignite that same upward momentum. I would stop short of naming 25%, but it could bring back the institutional adoption narrative that has quieted over the past few months.
A 25% pop from here would put Bitcoin around $82,000. That would be a move based on Clarity Act news alone.
Fair Value Around $95,000
Bitcoin's fair value right now sits closer to $95,000, meaning it stays undervalued today and this year. The short-term valuation anchor is the cost of producing Bitcoin. Miners with the most efficient ASIC fleets produce at about $60,000 today. Inefficient miners at the peak were producing at about $95,000. Like any commodity producer on Earth, miners generally run on low profit margins, which points to fair value near $95,000. That is not a price target.
Whether Bitcoin reaches $95,000 in the next six months is unknown, but a year-end rally is possible. It takes little flow to move Bitcoin because supply is constrained. It ran quickly from about $60,000 up to $83,000 earlier this year. Much of the upside hinges on Clarity passing and a return to institutional adoption with some sustained momentum. Summer is seasonally weak - this is Bitcoin winter - and year-end is typically a positive stretch for risk assets.
Wall Street Backs the Bill
BlackRock endorsed the Clarity Act officially for the first time. Its senior managing director and global head of market development, Samara Cohen, called Clarity an important step toward a regulatory framework for digital assets that puts investors first, saying the bill would help the United States shape the next era of market structure while preserving the transparency, resilience, and investor protections that keep the US the global leader in capital markets.
Every executive at the $15 trillion firm looks bullish on Bitcoin. Larry Fink is a known Bitcoin and Ethereum bull. BlackRock CIO Rick Rieder, asked point blank about a month and a half ago whether he still favored Bitcoin when it sat near its lows, said he thinks it is going considerably higher. One of his mutual funds still holds a little IBIT, which had sold off 50%. He expects it to go higher, though technical conditions cause it to chop around.
BlackRock, Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Goldman Sachs, and Grayscale - the biggest names in finance - are backing the Clarity Act. Over $30 trillion in combined assets support the bill.
Myths vs. Facts
The Crypto Council for Innovation lays out what the bill actually says.
Myth: Clarity is weak on illicit finance and national security. False. It is the most comprehensive digital-assets law enforcement bill to date. It expands anti-money-laundering and counter-terrorism-financing rules, boosts public-private intelligence sharing, adds $150 million in funding for FinCEN, and gives Treasury more authority to fight money-laundering risks.
Myth: Clarity doesn't protect consumers. False. Groups whose mission is protecting consumers, from law enforcement organizations to the NBCI Black Church coalition, have endorsed it.
Myth: Clarity was written by crypto insiders for crypto insiders. False. It was shaped over years of bipartisan work with the crypto industry, traditional finance, Wall Street, and regulators.
Myth: Clarity will cause deposit flight from banks. False. There is no evidence for the claim, yet the bill still includes language that directly addresses it. Senator Cynthia Lummis noted the combined bill pulls together the work of the Agriculture, Banking, Ethics, and Judiciary committees into one piece of legislation. Bankers allege it will cut deposits and reduce money for lending, but there is no proof. Deposits at banks are actually up since the Genius Act passed a year ago. Some are trying to use the Clarity Act to amend that Genius Act despite no sign of harm to deposits.
The bill does not contain everything one could want, but it holds many good things for crypto in the US. A section flagged by Galaxy head of research Alex Thorne protects self-custody coins from being deemed lost under abandoned-property laws due to on-chain inactivity or dormancy, with federal preemption over state laws. The bill is far better than current rules. Clarity would bring digital asset activity onshore under US regulatory standards and preserve America's lead in technology, finance, and innovation.
This Week's Wild Cards
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's second FOMC meeting falls this week, so expect volatility. Zooming out, there is strong reason to be bullish. Bitcoin has hit capitulation as severe as in 2022 - and 2022 was the best period to buy Bitcoin, as it is now.
