Market backdrop
The market keeps rising, but the NASDAQ has lagged. From a day-trading and swing-trading view, what matters is the reaction to news, not the long-term big picture. The market jumped right after a presentation by Kevin Warsh today, which is the kind of reaction worth watching. Many tech stocks did not react as strongly, but that looks short-term.
AI is the greatest technology in the history of mankind. Look at the daily advances in AI agents and at Nvidia's earnings. Talk about using AI agents to take over everyday work and trading started in January. Anthropic, OpenAI, and Grok Bot now show the results; Grok is called a sleeper with incredible technology. Ignore the daily social media outrage and this is a golden age. During what some called the AI bubble last fall, the claim was the AI trade is not over and 2026 will make 2025 look like a joke. Most of these stocks are now breaking out. Focus on themes, sectors, and good news, and there is huge opportunity.
CrowdStrike (CRWD)
AI has opened a new security frontier since all data is online and more exposed, and CRWD fills that gap. Corporations and government agencies cannot keep data fully in-house; it has to be accessible, which is where CRWD fits in. CRWD had a massive reaction to earnings, then pulled back today. The pullback gives possible entry points near previous support.
CRWD trades inside an upward-sloping channel drawn between two white lines - a trend line across the lows copied across the highs, which line up well and mark possible resistance if the move up firms again.
Support and levels to watch:
- 206, the low after the earnings gap up. A strong post-earnings push can form a bull flag or bull pennant, so watch for sideways-to-down consolidation then a push that could retest the old highs near 227 to 229.
- 192, where the gap opened.
- 181, a repeated series of lows.
- The 5-day EMA (dark blue, one week) near 208.30, a possible support in coming days; moving averages lag price.
- RSI is trending lower. A bullish setup needs a breakout above the trend line together with price making higher highs.
- Volume profile shows two distinct nodes centered near 170 and 190.
CRWD is the company that took down tech infrastructure for a day when every airport monitor showed the blue screen of death with looping binary code, which may have proved how important it is.
SpaceX (SPCX)
Possibly the hottest IPO ever, though Anthropic and OpenAI are coming. It ran too much too soon. Advice before the IPO was to let it shake out - it would blow off the top, pull back, find support, and give a time to buy, which would not be IPO day. It was almost red every single day for two or three days after the IPO, then firmed up. Some people took out loans to buy shares on IPO day, driven by animal spirits.
Two or three months later it is basing in the 130s and 140s and has gone sideways for a couple of weeks. Now is seen as a smart time to start buying because the mania is over. Terra Fab is called a great American manufacturing story. Data centers in space are coming, and SpaceX may be looked back on as the greatest, most society-changing company in world history. Still, use smart trade plans - if the stock breaks down, you have to trade it.
Technical read (hourly chart, used because the stock has traded only a short time):
- Old highs near 130, where it topped after earnings, later became a consistent floor.
- Range since early August runs about 130 to 150.
- A shorter-term downward-sloping trend line has broken; a retest of 150 may come.
- Above 150, the next level to watch is a peak near 176.
- Downside: 130 has heavy activity; 136 is a repeated support.
- On the daily chart, RSI looks odd because it needs 14 days of data, but price is above the 50 midline and trending up.
- 20-day SMA (olive) at 134.56; 50-day SMA (darker blue) about 137.50.
- Point of control on the hourly volume profile around 137 to 138; the current node runs about 132 to 142; volume thins out above 163.
Notably, the stock came back down to that point of control despite a huge debut near the IPO price - the big investment banks knew what they were doing.
Palantir (PLTR)
Praised as one of the greatest companies with Alex Karp as one of the greatest thinkers, ranked near Elon Musk and Jensen Huang. PLTR was on the radar all week because it is getting ready to break out, with a short-squeeze setup. Palantir makes all its swag in America (referenced by a limited edition cap, number 128 of 250) and helps the military, counterterrorism, and law enforcement.
The stock was loved in the single digits and the 20s. This year has been choppy and messy, and 2026 has been a bit of a lost year, but it is back - fundamentals and technicals have shifted and price is within a few points of all-time highs. New highs would bring in more buyers and start the squeeze. A repeated prediction: Michael Burry will be on the wrong side of the AI trade.
Technical read - one day may have stopped the prior trend after a huge earnings release:
- A big post-earnings push invalidated the downward-sloping trend line that formed from the 207 high.
- Now there is a narrow, steep upward-sloping channel (bottom trend line copied across the top).
- 180 was the short-term ceiling and has broken.
- Price is pushing above a small double top near 188 (formed after a slight gap down), which could open the door to post-gap highs near 196.
- Downside: 166 (a repeated closing low and recent stopping point) and 162 (where price often lost steam).
- 5-day EMA (dark blue) at 182 is the closest average; a touch of the 21-day EMA near 168, below the channel, would be a downside breakout.
- RSI invalidated the trend line and pushed into overbought above 70, a bullish signal.
- Volume drops off sharply above 187; to the downside, it thins below 176 and picks up again around 150 to 160.
