The market sits in a holding pattern. JOLTS data came out with no market reaction. Still ahead: PCE, unemployment, and heavy Fed speak. Call it the lull before a possible storm.
IonQ (IONQ)
Bank of America (BAC) gave IONQ a buy rating with a $60 price target. The stock trades near $44.40. It has moved above and stayed above the 200-day moving average, and I want continuation just above the 100-day.
Chart detail: IONQ hit a 52-week low of $25.89 in late March, then rallied hard around earnings from April, before the trend cooled. It recently bottomed near $35 and did not fill a small gap at $31.81 that formed at the start of the climb. Higher lows followed, so the steeper white trend line now matters more than the older blue one. Another notable high sits at $54.84. Moving averages cluster between roughly 41 and 44. The 5-day and 251-day exponential moving averages (one week and one year) sit right on top of each other near 43-44 and line up with the white trend line, giving a clear support-or-breakdown point. RSI crossed above the 50 midline a few weeks back and stays bullish, though it risks breaking a short-term green trend line. The heaviest volume node runs from about 40 to 50, with the point of control at $45.81; crossing above it would be notable. Recent volume spikes show heavy activity.
Trade: a 45/50 call spread for regular October (October 16th). Buy it for 1.15, max loss 1.15, max return 3.85, paying 3.35 to 1. No earnings risk - earnings come in early November.
Akamai Technologies (AKAM)
AKAM landed an $11.6 billion Anthropic cloud deal, which sparked a sharp move up. The stock trades near $107.45, down about 1.5-1.7% on the day. A signal went out on this name but has not filled yet, though it is close.
The setup is a pullback to the 200-day moving average, which tends to hold for a while when the market is quiet. The plan is a sit-and-stay neutral trade using a credit iron condor for Friday, October 2nd: the 103/106/113/116 iron condor sold for 1.90, taking in 1.90 in premium. Each side is $3 wide, so risk is 1.10 against 1.90 collected - laying 0.58 to 1 odds.
Chart detail: the overall pattern is a downward-sloping channel with one sharp news-driven push up that has since faded. Price fell back below the 110 level, a repeated-lows area now breached but kept as reference. Next relative lows sit at 101, then 94 below that. After big news, price often pulls back to prior support before the earlier trend resumes - a common pattern, not a prediction. To the upside, 125 marks old highs and roughly where the stock opened on the big news day three or four sessions ago; then 130, then 138. Moving averages have slipped below the 251-day EMA (the long-term yearly EMA at 108), falling below all of them fast. RSI is under its 50 midline. A green long-term up trend line still holds, but a shorter-term red down trend line is also in play, giving a modest negative tilt. Heavy trading runs 108 to 118, with a very large volume spike on the news day last week.
STMicroelectronics (STM)
STM showed up on scanners in the last few days. The setup: price came to resistance at the 50-day simple moving average, pushed above it, and now holds it. The next target is a move above 53-55, cleared this morning before a pullback, then aiming at the 59 strike.
Chart detail: after an earnings gap down on July 23rd, the high set shortly after was 57 (red line). The 48 level (green line) was the low after the earlier upside earnings gap back in April, forming a range. The 48 low held several times; the 57 level has not been breached despite tests in early August. The blue trend line was in play before today, but price pushed above it, making the white upward-sloping trend line the dominant one if the move holds. Above, 65 is roughly where the last gap opened, with another relative high at 76. To the downside, 48-45 is the previous earnings gap, and another gap began at 42. The 63-day EMA (one quarter, gold) at $54.15 is most relevant today - about where price topped out before pulling back. The 5-day and 21-day EMAs (a week and a month) sit close together around 51.50 to 52 and align with the trend line, marking a breakdown point. RSI trends up and holds above the 50 midline but has not made new relative highs above the prior peak - what bulls need for a clearer uptrend. Volume in the 49-54 zone is where price sits now; above 57 volume thins fast, so prices could move quickly there, with the next node at 69-72.
Trade: a call vertical. Reading implied volatility gives an expected move, and a one standard deviation move lined up right at the 59 strike, which is why the choice was the 56/59 call vertical for regular October (October 16th). The 57 level should give way if the move gets going. Earnings are on the 29th, so no earnings event risk. STM traded up about half a percent on the session.
