The Clarity Act Fails
Bitcoin (BTC) rose over 2% on Monday ahead of a key procedural vote, then fell 4% after the Senate failed to reach the 60 votes needed to pass the Clarity Act. The vote was 49 to 50. Three Republicans voted against it. The main sticking point was President Trump's personal crypto investments.
The Clarity Act would set a regulatory framework for digital assets in the US. If passed, it would in theory help institutional adoption and give crypto more traction.
The outlook for passage is poor. Congress goes into recess on October 6th, midterms are coming, and the makeup of the Senate after those elections is unknown. On the Kalshi prediction markets, the odds the Clarity Act passes by next October are 13%, and by January 2028 just 21%.
Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase (COIN), said he will talk to the CFTC and SEC to try to build more traction around clarity for digital assets and Bitcoin. That is not the same as getting a law passed. The failed vote is not a bullish development, and Bitcoin and other coins reflected that.
Two things could help from here: more clarity from the CFTC or SEC, or a favorable Senate makeup after the midterms that makes passage easier. Current odds do not point to either.
The Charts
At the time of recording on Wednesday, Bitcoin (BTC) traded around 75,600. Price came back to life last month, helped by fiscal issues, the return of the debasement trade, and volatility at the long end of the yield curve in bonds.
Even without the Clarity Act, Bitcoin has been consolidating above its 200-day simple moving average, which is technically bullish. Pushing above prior resistance and holding there is the healthy pattern. On the futures chart, price has bounced off that long-term moving average many times. Consolidating below resistance would be bearish; this is consolidation above what now looks like support.
The 200-day SMA sits around 74,600. That is the near-term support level to watch. Bulls want it to hold.
Resistance is around 80,000. Price tried to push above 80K a couple weeks ago, may have reached 81K, then pulled back. There is heavy average accumulation and congestion around the 80K level - a lot of churn near the volume weighted average price.
Seasonality
Seasonality and the four-year cycle could turn bullish. September is weak seasonally, but October is one of the most bullish months and has been consistent over the past decade. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. The halving cycle also tends to inflect around this time, between late September and early October. Within two to three weeks, seasonality would shift in the bulls' favor.
Key things to watch: how price reacts at 80,000 if it gets there, and how it reacts at the 200-day SMA if it pulls back to test that support again.
