Casey's General Stores (CASY) has beaten the S&P 500 this year. CASY is up almost 45%, while the S&P 500 is up 18.8%. It sits in the consumer staples sector and has few close competitors. Kroger (KR), which also reports earnings this week, competes with it in groceries and fuel and is the nearest comparable name. CASY reports too, and results come out after the bell today.
Chart levels
The all-time high is 927.85, reached shortly after the last earnings report. Price then dipped and now sits near a support area. Key levels:
- Lows near 739 to 730 form support; price recently held the upper edge, marked by the first green line near 739.
- Relative highs come in near 780 (first red line).
- A prior low near 811 is a breakdown point that could act as resistance going forward.
- A brief range high sits near 883.
Moving averages and momentum
Price is closest to the 5-day EMA (dark blue) at 761.43, which stands for one week. To the downside, the 251-day EMA (orange), the longest-term and most important line, stands for one year and sits at 708. Price is in a wedge shape; a drop out of it points to that 708 area as possible support.
RSI, the momentum gauge, leans bearish. It stays above the 30 midline; a push below into oversold would be a bearish signal, more so if it happens along with a falling price.
The volume profile shows heavy trading (a node) from 735 to 766, another upside node matching range activity at 827 to 874, and a downside node from 658 to 690.
Example trade
Earnings land September 18, 10 days out. The expected move is plus or minus about 8.8%. A bullish idea for the earnings move is a call butterfly: buy one September 18 760/790/820 call butterfly at a $3 debit.
- Max loss: $300.
- Max profit: $2,700, reached if it expires right at the double short strike of 790.
- The upper long call at 820 lines up roughly with the edge of the expected move.
- Break even is 763, about 1% to the upside. The trade starts to lose money again at 817, about 8% to the upside.
The position does not have to be held into expiration; it can be traded as an earnings move looking for bullish upside.
