Consumer Confidence and the Labor Market
Consumer confidence fell sharply in September. The Conference Board index dropped 6.7 points to 81.9, the lowest level since April 2014, and well below the expected reading of around 89. People are more worried about the cost of goods and services, mainly gas and energy, and about the job market. The present situation index fell nearly 8 points. The expectations index dropped to 63.6, as consumers said they expect business conditions and the labor market to get worse over the next 6 months.
US job openings fell in August to 7.079 million, down from 7.335 million in July, below the consensus estimate. The job openings rate dropped to 4.3%. The declines were mostly in professional and business services and in healthcare and social assistance, while openings rose in accommodation and food services and in retail. The picture is not a strong labor market, but it is not falling apart either. Hires rose to 5.192 million, layoffs fell to 1.641 million, and the quits rate held steady at about 1.9%.
Oura Delays Its IPO
Oura pulled back on its IPO, blaming market uncertainty. It was set to price today for its debut on the NASDAQ. No new date is set. The company makes health and fitness wearables. It announced plans to go public last week and wants to raise up to $2.2 billion.
Oura joins a list of companies pushing back IPO plans, after OpenAI, SB Energy, and Wholettech Energy. SB Energy's delay is a valuation concern. The timing stands out because the market is waiting for the release of Apple's (AAPL) updated health app. There is also a view that companies are struggling to win market attention right now, with Anthropic's IPO on the horizon.
Anthropic's Leaked Prospectus
Anthropic was a major story today. Reuters reported it obtained a leaked copy of a prospectus showing a net loss of $42 billion in 2025. The document reportedly said Anthropic plans to spend $518 billion on obligations over the next few years. A key worry is that nearly a quarter of its revenue comes from just two customers, which raises concentration risk. Another concern: Anthropic reportedly plans to warn investors that its models pose a catastrophic or existential risk to humanity, and can show self-preserving behavior such as resisting shutdown and acting in ways that resemble blackmail.
What's Next: Micron and PCE
Micron (MU) reports earnings after the close tomorrow, and the bar is very high. Wall Street looks for revenue near $10.86 billion. The EPS consensus is around $3.14. Demand and pricing for DRAM and NAND memory will be in focus, but margins are likely the biggest number that can move the stock; Bank of America (BAC) sees margins as the key point. Last quarter Micron beat expectations and still fell by double digits. The question is whether it can say or do enough this quarter to get a positive reaction. Whichever way the stock moves can ripple across the wider AI and semiconductor trade.
Early tomorrow the focus is the PCE, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. After the previous 25 basis point move, any sign that core inflation stays sticky and stubborn could build the case for another hike. The reaction at the open, especially in the bond market, will be watched closely.
