Regulatory Clarity Is Coming Either Way
The bottom for Bitcoin looks to be in, and crypto is set to get regulatory clarity one way or another. Trillions of dollars are about to enter the crypto market, per Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase (COIN). The reason smart money is bullish: September 15th is the day the U.S. Senate votes on the Clarity Act.
The pattern to expect comes from the Genius Act, which passed last year for stablecoins. After that law passed, more than 150 large companies added stablecoins within a three-month period. Something similar could happen if the Clarity Act passes. The Act is a regulatory checkbox and a big milestone. It would unlock institutional capital and bring tokenized equities and perpetual futures ("perps") to the United States.
The Clarity Act would create a clear regulatory framework to protect American consumers and help build the technology in the U.S., matching what the G20 and other countries are doing. There has been strong bipartisan compromise, with hundreds of pages of input from both sides. Law enforcement groups, many banks, and crypto companies are now on board. Earlier concerns raised about the bill have since been resolved. Everyone spoken with in the Senate supports it.
The vote needs 60 votes to pass. On September 15th, the Clarity Act either dies on the Senate floor or advances; if it advances, it probably gets signed into law. Prediction market odds now sit closer to 10%, and some say the Act seems dead.
If the bill fails, the outcome is still good. White House crypto advisor Patrick Wit told the press that if the Clarity Act fails, the next chapter is aggressive SEC and CFTC rulemaking. The SEC and CFTC have already said they are about to publish rulemaking and innovation exemptions under their existing authority. The rules that would come from the Clarity Act would then be enacted through the individual agencies. That path is less sticky - it can be changed more easily - but it stays bullish for crypto as long as the rules stay in place. Either way, clarity arrives on the 15th or a day or two after.
Global Traditional Finance Is Warming to Crypto
Pressure on U.S. regulators keeps building as other countries pass their own versions of clarity rules. Canada just approved banks to launch crypto deposit products in 2026, pushing crypto deeper into Canada's traditional banking system. Similar news is coming from the UK, Italy, China, and Singapore. Traditional finance worldwide is getting bigger and better for crypto.
The $400,000 Bitcoin Call
A $400,000 Bitcoin price by 2030 is called reasonable. That is roughly a 5x from Bitcoin's price today, in just four years. Bitcoin is trading just below the 80,000 handle now, up from around 60k.
The reasoning rests on crypto's roughly four-year cycles: a runup, some euphoria, then a down period. Most down periods last about a year, and the market just crossed the one-year mark for this one. So the bottom looks to be in for Bitcoin in this most recent cycle. Two more drivers point up: the rulemaking that follows the Clarity Act (whether or not it passes), and the next Bitcoin halving event about a year and a half out. Run-ups tend to happen in advance of a halving. The next year or two should be good for Bitcoin.
Hunter Biden's Memecoin Collapse
Hunter Biden's crypto memecoin crashed 99% just two hours after launch. Ahead of launch, many in crypto warned him it would end like other celebrity and politician meme coins - and it did. What stood out is his response video, in which he took full responsibility, unlike Trump, unlike Haliey Welch ("Hawk Tuah girl"), and unlike other celebrity meme coin creators. He said he would make everything right and stick with the project.
In his statement, Hunter Biden said the token is his, that he worked on it for six months, and went deep into cryptocurrency to understand what he was getting into. He aimed to do something different from what the community has been offered over the past two years, something to build community. Features he named: a 20% airdrop to his subscribers and to people who lost money on the Trump token, plus airdrops to come; a charity component tied to recovery and addiction charities; and the first-ever prediction market embedded into a coin. He said he was involved in every discussion on the tokenomics and how the coin would be presented.
He blamed the crash on the first 30 seconds after launch. The market maker put in only $5,000 of liquidity while demand was very high. The coin rose to $2.39, then spiked to $316 a token - a $316 billion market cap, larger than the market cap of BlackRock (BLK). The team got it under control, but the damage was done, making the price chart look like Mount Everest. He said he is in it 100% and is working to get more liquidity and volume into the market.
