The bulls control the floor. The E-Mini S&P 500 (and the broad S&P 500) followed through on a technical breakout from a bull flag pattern watched for the last few weeks. After the breakout came a retest of a prior resistance area, then more upside this morning, with the S&P E-mini touching all-time highs.
Yesterday showed a broadening market. More than 70% of S&P 500 stocks were in the green at least 15 minutes before the close. Technology and communication services keep leading and give some balance, but some under-loved sectors also caught a bid. The alpha likely comes from lower-beta names that were oversold now pulling in fund flows that push the whole market higher.
Yields support this move. The 10-year Treasury has not jumped over the last four trading sessions; it sits in a 17 basis point range. What matters is the volatility of the yield move, not the yield level itself. High-yield credit spreads edged down yesterday, another positive for the S&P 500. The VIX trades in the 15s, still low given the high bond volatility seen lately.
Oil
West Texas Intermediate is approaching $87 a barrel and moving lower over the last few days. This level is where buyers have stepped in before; it hits primary trend lines off the June lows that have held for about three months, so buyers may step in again. Analytics firms say oil flows from the Gulf are around 83% of pre-war levels, data that can be contested but is being used to reassure the market that flows are less disrupted than feared. Risk remains: an escalation between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in Yemen, with heavy military activity yesterday as the Yemeni government tried to retake ground around the Bab al-Mandab, the main shipping risk if things escalate. Heating oil and diesel are also lower, which eases some pressure at the pump. The 10-year is not trading on this; it stays elevated because of government funding risk and upcoming auctions.
AMD
Citi raised its price target on AMD (AMD) to $800 from $575 and reiterated its buy rating. It lifted AMD's 2030 CPU total addressable market to $300 billion, after the launch of several personal AI agents like Muse. Always-on agents could drive heavy inference that leans on AMD's CPUs; AMD is known for CPUs more than GPUs. CEO Lisa Su traveled to Taipei to meet suppliers, including Foxconn and TSMC, to secure and substantially increase supply through 2026 and into 2027 to meet AI demand. AMD had a strong consolidation breakout; analysts are catching up to the price action.
Constellation Energy
Shares of Constellation Energy (CEG) jumped about 6% in the pre-market on a Bloomberg report of a near-$1 billion arrangement, actually two deals packaged into one. Google (GOOGL) signed a 3.59 gigawatt power deal with Constellation, delivered over time. The immediate piece is about 900 megawatts, coming online through upgraded nuclear reactors. Constellation plans to spend about $4.3 billion to boost output from 11 existing nuclear units across Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. The second deal is a 20-year agreement for another 2.7 gigawatts. Google keeps locking in a large share of its forecast electricity demand as fast as it can, targeting nuclear and 24-hour power plus alternative energy to run its data centers. Constellation has been in a consolidation pattern for months, and this news could break it higher. Utilities outperformed yesterday because the nuclear trade came back into focus.
Flows
Still bullish positioning on the S&P 500, like yesterday morning. To the upside: the 7840 calls hold most of the flows and gamma exposure, with 7835 as the level that gets you there. To the downside: 7780. Calls outweigh puts again, showing more enthusiasm. Little economic data today. Tomorrow's 10-year Treasury auction is where volatility could flare.
