Each Starship test flight has topped the one before it. The recent flight hit engine problems, so the orbital part of the mission was cut short and the rocket was brought back to reentry earlier than planned. Despite that, the deployment of version three (V3) Starlink satellites into orbit worked very well.
Why the launch matters
The value comes from learning from earlier failures and avoiding them next time. Lowering launch cost opens up what is possible for SpaceX and the wider space economy.
SpaceX sits at the center of two big shifts at once: the uncertainty around artificial intelligence and what it can do, plus the space capability that SpaceX is built on.
The Starlink opportunity
Starlink brings in real-time revenue. A single new satellite can carry the capability of roughly 10 version-two satellites, so the system scales fast. As SpaceX launches these new satellites and makes more use of Starship, the cost per satellite should drop a lot. That pulls in new customers and new technologies.
SpaceX wants to build more Starships. It is expanding in Louisiana, a major win that most people missed but was worth watching before the announcement. The company runs on a long-term vision, doing things many call impossible, and its infrastructure lets it do far more than what it shows today. That same infrastructure supports the next versions of its technology and goals.
Because the program is still in the testing stage, there is at least some certainty. This is the first time SpaceX completed the flight, and it can scale up quickly - both in launch frequency and in the number of satellites per mission. The new satellites are much more powerful than V3's predecessors, and the new ship carries more than the old ships.
Payload and scale
On the last test flight only about 50% of the payload was used. Double that, with each satellite 10 times more powerful, and the growth is striking. When operational spacecraft first launched in 2019, there were about 2,000 in low Earth orbit. SpaceX alone is now multiplying that number. In January it applied to launch over a million AI satellites for its constellation. SpaceX is taking up a large share of low Earth orbit, which pushes other companies to move faster before that orbit gets more crowded.
Competition
SpaceX leads the space economy and is far ahead of rivals in many areas. Its main competitor right now is China, which is trying to copy SpaceX's advances and is now showing vertical landing capabilities of its own.
SpaceX's success helps others too. If you can put things into low Earth orbit for $200 per kilogram or less, or even $500 or less, that is remarkable. Many more companies can then say their ideas and technologies might be economically viable at such low startup cost, which brings more innovation and ideas into the industry.
Valuation and the bull-bear debate
The main counterargument is the starting point. SpaceX already carries a high market cap, so a 10x rise would put it somewhere in the $10 to $20 trillion range. That high base may be the main limit on future public investment.
Still, the company's ambitions are large, and it is already very important to the US government, the US military, and national defense and security. How do you value the first company to reach Mars and start building infrastructure there? What if SpaceX becomes the company that best figures out how to collect solar energy in space and send it to Earth? These are several potential multi-trillion dollar opportunities in coming years - some that SpaceX has revealed it is working on, and others it may take on later.
SpaceX's vertical integration lets it support its own ambitions and serve many customers worldwide. We do not fully understand what SpaceX will become, which is part of the bull-bear argument that will likely follow this company forever. What it is trying to do is remarkable, and most of us should hope it succeeds.
