Market Backdrop
Several worries hit the market at once: rising conflict in Iran, a reported agreement between Ukraine and Russia about attacking refineries, oil above $100 a barrel, and a market fully in the red on fears of an AI slowdown. These are real concerns, but earnings are what matter most.
The AI story is the main focus. Comments this week from Anthropic's Dario Amodei can be both true and self-serving. AI needs regulation, is scary, and is hard to track because self-learning models change in real time. Telling customers "this is the most dangerous technology in history, but I control it and you can trust me" may buy the company time through its IPO while the models learn how to make money. This delay could be exactly what the market needs long term: it lets these companies get through their IPOs and grow into their valuations. The real test has always been whether these firms can turn a profit two or three years out, and whether they can make their large language models (LLMs) earn money consistently. That worry is what the market has been pricing in, and this may just push the timeline forward a year or two.
On IPO timing: OpenAI said it will not go public in 2026, calling that "ill advised." Axios reports Anthropic will IPO this year.
Palantir (PLTR)
Up about 2.25% on the day, trading at 171.50, moving higher with other cyber names on the AI selloff reaction. PLTR sits in a category of its own within cyber and is frontier-model agnostic - it does not matter which AI model wins. It runs inside data centers and holds technology critical to how governments and big businesses use their data. As data becomes more powerful, PLTR is positioned to use that power well. It is a must-own for the present and long term. The end story for AI is still uncertain, but PLTR will be there, running whichever model is out there, helping companies, governments, and hospitals turn data into something useful.
Chart: flat over the past year overall, but trading in a new, higher range since its August earnings. It topped out recently near 187 (old highs), then formed a falling wedge between two white trend lines - usually a bullish setup. It is now firming at 166 (a green line marking an old low and a later high). A breakout past either boundary line is the key trigger, since that can set off a cascade of orders. The 5-day and 21-day exponential moving averages sit together near 170-171, right where price is now breaking above them. RSI (a momentum gauge) has broken its upward green trend line but is fighting back above the 50 midline, which points bullish. Volume profile shows clear nodes: one from 174 to 187, and the point of control in a larger node from 128 to about 138. Chart caution: a breakout is not guaranteed.
Oracle (ORCL)
Down about 4-4.25%, trading around 144.28, caught in the AI selloff. ORCL is closely tied to OpenAI's valuation and has huge future obligations tied to OpenAI. It is spending heavily to build data centers and needs OpenAI's IPO to succeed and OpenAI to actually use those data centers. Its infrastructure is already large and its growth has been strong - revenue growth came in a little north of 30%, yet the stock is down since earnings.
The stock has been under pressure over worries about OpenAI's path to revenue and over Larry Ellison selling 15 million shares. Over the weekend it was learned Ellison will not sell his shares now; he may sell at a higher valuation, perhaps over 200, but not at current levels. The pushed-back OpenAI IPO (now at least 2027) may actually help by giving OpenAI a longer runway. That sets up nicely for a long-term view on a stock that is down today. A new round of layoffs was also announced this morning.
Chart: 52-week lows and the price bottom sit at 114.50. An upward-sloping channel is now breaking, with today's price opening below the channel boundary, but price still holds above the range floor near 139 - a downside break on one hand, holding support on the other. Next high to beat is 171. A gap near 198 has never been filled. Three moving averages - 5-day (one week), 21-day (one month), and 63-day (one quarter) - all line up between about 149 and 151; the more indicators converging at one point, the more it matters, since more traders watch it, making this short-term resistance. RSI is weakening: it has broken its green upward trend line and dropped below the 50 midline at the same time - bearish. Volume profile point of control is near the day's high at the thick red line around 147, with heavy trading from 139 to 155. Big volume spikes hit the last couple of sessions.
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)
Up almost 13%, the top performer in the S&P 500 today, and a big winner from Amodei's announcement, with cyber names outperforming. PANW was already on the radar and has been owned for a long time. It is surprising it took this kind of news to trigger the move, and surprising it traded as low as it did. The buying today is relentless, rising each time it is checked. The logic: security keeps adding layers, every new data center is another buyer of security, and every new model is a new entry point for security. The need for cybersecurity is expanding, so owning these companies has to be part of any AI play, and every company must think about it hard. It should not have taken this weekend's news for people to see that; the market may only now be catching up as it thinks harder about recursive learning models.
Chart: up 100% year to date, but down 3% over the last month. Earnings did not help this time despite a seemingly strong environment. A notable drop-off left closing prices around 328 (green line), with another low near 308 not yet tested - an extreme low to watch. The earnings gap near 356 has been firmly broken. An old gap in a series of highs near 342 marked today's low. A downward-sloping trend line off the highs and an upward-sloping line across the lows form a triangle; price is now pushing above it, with the next stop near a set of highs around 387 if it holds. The 21-day and 5-day EMAs were stacked and price has broken above them; watch the faster 5-day EMA as possible support if price drifts down. RSI has broken above its red downward trend line and above the 50 midline - bullish, especially since both happen at once. The 63-day EMA acted as fairly reliable support during the uptrend, showing how moving averages support in uptrends and resist in downtrends. Volume profile shows a node from about 325 to 363, really two smaller spikes near 330 and 350; price is now pushing above into thinly traded territory at the highs, so beware of fast-moving prices there.
