Market Backdrop
The first week of September brought a mixed session: the Russell and NASDAQ traded higher, the S&P 500 and Dow lower. August jobs came in far better than expected, which fit the view of a "golden age of America" driven by manufacturing, AI, and space innovation (naming builders like the El Segundo group and Palmer Luckey). The sideways drift all week was normal for the pre-Labor Day stretch - many big traders were away, volumes dropped, and moves stayed muted. Fall looks very bullish: the summer low is behind, people are back to work, kids back to school, and the next six months should bring strong trading chances.
Apple (AAPL)
Apple's "Sunrise and Shine" event is next week, likely bringing new phones, possibly a foldable iPhone, under new CEO John Ternus. The bigger story is Apple as a "sleeper AI play." The new Mac Studios and Mac minis, already on pre-order at high prices, matter more than the iPhone for the bottom line: OpenAI reportedly bought tens of thousands of Mac minis and Mac Studios (which helps explain a recent outage), and Anthropic is leasing them heavily. Tim Cook is praised as an excellent manager who squeezed every penny but weak on innovation; John Ternus is expected to bring back major innovation. The stock is favored over months, years, even decades.
Technicals (AAPL): Price traded down about 2.8% to 318.96 on the session. After the earnings drop, price formed an upward channel connecting recent lows and highs, though the broader picture still shows a lower high and a possible downtrend. Today looks like a bearish engulfing candle, where the large red candle swallows the prior day's smaller green body; follow-through the next session will confirm. Upside gaps sit at 330 and 337. Downside levels: lows at 313 and 300. Price crossed below the 5-day EMA (dark blue, one week) and is holding near the 21-day EMA (teal, one month) at 316.6. Below the channel, the 63-day EMA at 310 is the next support. RSI shows a triangular shape and is near breaking below its green trend line, close to the 50 midline (a bearish signal). Volume profile shows a node at 308-314 and a small pocket near the 328 high; the downside zone could act as support.
Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia posted blockbuster earnings and broke its multi-quarter pattern of falling after earnings, holding the gain and rising close to 10% over the past month. This week it announced a virtual inference router that lets an array of hardware - DGX Sparks and Mac hardware (tying back to the Apple pick) - be linked so all nodes act as one combined computer. The Hugging Face acquisition (Hugging Face works like GitLab for AI assets, an online community to share and store models) is seen as genius for bringing local models to the US; the preference is US-based models over China-based ones like Qwen and Kimi. Between short sellers getting burned (a jab at Michael Burry, referencing Lululemon (LULU)), Hugging Face, and Nemotron, the idea is liked more now than a year ago.
Technicals (NVDA): Trading up more than 1.5% at 232.07. The old high water mark is 236.54; another high fell short near 232, and price had topped near 231. Intraday highs came between the two resistance areas - it cleared the second-best high but not the old one. The pattern is a rising wedge, with both boundary lines converging upward and a steeper slope along the lows. Downside: a gap near 213-214 is significant, with an extreme low near 207; after the strong rally there are few other downside markers. Moving averages show no trend weakening - all diverging apart, ordered fastest to slowest, with the 5-day EMA around 226 as first support; breaching it would be an early warning of a trend change. RSI is not cooperating yet - it has not broken above its red trend line or made a strong new relative high, both things traders want before trusting a breakout. Volume profile lacks distinct nodes in the upper area; best is 218-223, with another pocket at 206-212.
Chevron (CVX)
Chevron was first shared as a "big three" idea in the first week of January and is up about 37% since. The thesis centers on Venezuela: replacing Maduro and opening the country to a freer oil economy, tied to a Delta Force raid and administration deals. Chevron announced yesterday it will keep expanding operations in Venezuela. It is the favored oil and gas play; a hoped-for end to the Iran situation could push the US to lean more toward Venezuela. The preference is for all oil markets to be uncapped. The chart is strong since January, broke out a couple of days ago, and pulled back a little.
Technicals (CVX): Trading at 208.71, down about 1.25% today, up more than 30% this year. The mark to beat is 214.71, not yet reached. Watch a gap at 211 (gaps often get filled and mark where information or news changed) and a similar gap down near 202 as possible support if price falls below the white trend line. Other lows: an extreme low near 198 and a short-term floor near 186. Moving averages are mostly diverging apart, but the 5-day EMA is turning down, slowing the divergence; price is on pace to close below that weekly EMA at 208.84. Shorter moving averages are less reliable and more prone to fakeouts but most responsive. The 21-day EMA (teal) at 202.6 lines up closely with the trend line, marking a breakdown or support point. RSI has dipped below the 70 overbought threshold but holds its green trend line - watch for a recovery above it and new relative highs. Volume profile: a spike at 204-206, but the bulk of activity is 182-193, with the point of control (heaviest trading) at 188.
