US and China Move in Opposite Directions on AI
Several developments in AI this week point to a growing split between US and China strategies. The US conversation about the risks of the technology picked up strongly this week, with high-profile tech leaders speaking out.
Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxson drew wide attention with a post accusing AI labs of "gambling with our lives." Greg Jensen of Bridgewater compared AI to the early days of Covid-19. AI labs are now talking about slowing the pace. OpenAI's Sam Altman is reportedly responding to these warnings and is said to be considering tapping the brakes on cutting-edge AI development, and he hopes others do the same.
This "pacing" trend in the US contrasts with China, which is developing AI aggressively and speeding up its timeline. Startup DeepSeek released a new version 4.1 flash model that reportedly needs far less high-bandwidth memory. Moonshot AI is targeting a large jump in annual recurring revenue, aiming for $2 billion in annualized sales in 2026, according to Bloomberg, driven by its Kimi K3 model, which is priced competitively against US rivals.
The Week Ahead: Central Banks and Data
Next week is heavy for central banks, with the FOMC as the main event. Today's CPI raised the odds of a rate hike at the next meeting; current pricing points to roughly an 85% chance the Fed increases rates. The Bank of England is expected to hold. The Bank of Japan is expected to hike at the end of the week, so watch dollar-yen.
On data, the calendar includes export and import prices, retail sales, and a batch of housing and manufacturing data. A big data dump from China comes Monday, covering economic activity indicators and home prices. Two key levels to watch: 5% on the 10-year and $100 oil. Corporate earnings are lighter, with a few notable names such as LAR on Wednesday.
