Price moves and the bull case
Bitcoin (BTC) is up 50% since its July lows. Ethereum (ETH) is up 85% since its July lows. The current macro setup looks better for Bitcoin than the last bull market, which supports a $400,000 to $500,000 target.
Strive CEO Matt Cole sets a base case of 50% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Bitcoin through 2030 and calls that conservative. Two reasons back this up.
First, a backward-looking signal. In every past bull run, once Bitcoin moves above its 200-week moving average into a bull market, the CAGR for the next three to four years has never dropped below 60%. That figure was trimmed slightly because Bitcoin already sits above its 200-week moving average now.
Second, the past does not always predict the future, so the more important question is the current macro setup compared to the 2022-2023 bear market that led into the 2024-2025 bull market. Today's conditions are much better. Anchoring to that last bull market gives about a 50% CAGR into 2030, which lands Bitcoin at $400,000 to $500,000.
The dollar and rates
The base case sees a much weaker dollar. Treasury head Scott Bessent said he is "the house," and over the next couple of years he is expected to hold down long-end interest rates and stop them from rising much, though he has not done enough yet. As that pressure releases, both the dollar and Bitcoin react, and Bitcoin takes back its role as the "fastest horse" against gold and rises hard.
Regulation turning crypto-friendly
CFTC chair Mike Selig has moved to free up crypto, much like SEC chair Paul Atkins did recently. After Atkins acted, crypto pumped 10-15% over the next five days. Selig is tweeting these clips himself, a sign of how much it matters to him.
Selig says markets are changing fast and moving on-chain, pushed by prediction markets, crypto, and artificial intelligence. Regulators are reworking rules for a shift to 24/7 on-chain automated markets run through algorithms and agentic finance. This comes weeks after the clarity vote. Some rules have been sent on for consideration, and the agency will keep updating rules for what he calls the new frontier of finance.
Selig is serious, calling it "go time." Agencies already hold broad statutory authority. Two years ago the president's working group on digital asset markets reviewed both existing statutory authority and possible new legislation, and the report includes a full section on using current authority. The president is prepared, and so is the agency, so more rules will keep shipping.
On-chain and chart signals
Bitcoin has reclaimed every long-term moving average: the 200-day, the 365-day, and the 50-week. It spent 300 days below these lines, and that has now flipped. Holding above them could mark the start of a new long-term uptrend.
The MVRV metric is flashing green. Per Glassnode, this is the same momentum signal that kicked off the last two bull runs. MVRV has crossed its 365-day moving average, the same cross seen in 2019 and 2023 at the start of each bull run.
To close September green, Bitcoin needs to close the month above $79,300. Three green months in a row would mark a bull market. Even at recent levels, this would be Bitcoin's best September ever.
AI as a demand driver
BlackRock (BLK) has published a report saying AI agents will drive future demand for crypto, and that AI agents may become a bigger driver of digital asset demand than humans. Its research paper looks at the link between AI and digital assets and argues broad AI adoption may create new demand, utility, and applications across the crypto ecosystem.
Exchange promotion
A crypto exchange called WEEX is offering large sign-up rewards: a $500 bonus for 100 winners each week, up to $10,000 in welcome rewards for new users, and a 50% deposit bonus on any deposit above $100.
