A New Bull Market Setup
Both the macro backdrop and the state of the crypto market today read like a new bull market. The cryptocurrency market looks ready to move sharply higher. The Clarity Act is a short-term catalyst that could push markets up, and it may be the last chance to pass such a bill, per Senator Cynthia Lummis.
ARK Invest's Bitcoin Case
ARK Invest (led by Cathie Wood) stays bullish on Bitcoin as of September 2026, resting on three points:
1. Bitcoin versus gold looks promising - a turn is in. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio shows a breakout. The correlation between Bitcoin and gold is very low by historical standards, which makes Bitcoin's move up against gold reassuring. ARK expects this ratio to keep rising to all-time highs.
2. Bitcoin is three revolutions in one: a technology revolution, a new global monetary system, and the first of its kind in a new asset class. That is why it has "miles to go."
3. Bitcoin is both a risk-off and a risk-on asset.
If ARK is right on inflation, pressure on gold should be to the downside. Both Bitcoin and gold act as insurance. The technology revolution will put many companies in harm's way and create counterparty risk if enough firms get into trouble - risk that could benefit both Bitcoin and gold.
Institutional Buildout
Everything changed for crypto in 2024 when the Bitcoin ETF was approved. Wall Street and institutions have been building the plumbing and infrastructure since then, planning for the next 10 years, not just this year.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Lead
Bitcoin is the anchor and Ethereum sits right behind it ("Bitcoin is daddy, Ethereum is mommy"). Altcoins can rise harder, but none of it lasts without Bitcoin and Ethereum showing strength. A lasting crypto bull market starts with the big two. We are entering a bull market and the low is very likely in. Markets formed a launch pad, are forming another leg up, and should break higher.
Ethereum Stablecoin Gas Fees
Big news: Ethereum will let users pay transaction fees with stablecoins instead of ETH in 2027. This seems bearish for ETH, since ETH would get used less, but it is bullish because it makes Ethereum much easier to use. Right now you cannot use an ETH wallet unless you already hold extra ETH to pay gas fees. Many new users set up an ETH wallet just to hold a stablecoin or another token. Under the proposal, a payment app could cover the fee itself, or take stablecoins from the user and settle the ETH bill on their behalf. Ethereum still gets paid in Ether under the hood and the user never has to buy any.
The AI Doomer Funding Claim
Former White House AI and crypto czar David Sacks directly called out Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, claiming he is among a handful of billionaires funding the AI doomer movement that targets AI and data centers, spending hundreds of millions on campaigns to make people afraid of AI. This should have no direct effect on Ethereum. It shows how big crypto founders have become 16 years into crypto's history - Vitalik can put money behind a cause and influence it.
There have been many influence operations around data centers and a lot of fake information. The named groups: the CCP, the DSA wing of the Democratic party (both described as communist parties aiming to sabotage America), and doomer groups. A writer named Nirit Weiss-Blatt, who runs a blog called AI Panic, traced hundreds of astroturf doomer groups funded by three effective-altruism (EA) billionaires in Silicon Valley: Dustin Moskovitz, Jaan Tallinn, and Vitalik Buterin. Vitalik gave $600 million of dog coins to the Future of Life Foundation. A billion dollars of donations from these EA billionaires has done real damage to public perception of AI. The Anthropic IPO could create about a hundred new EA billionaires, and as they enter politics it could be "George Soros times 100 or a thousand," with staff of "20 NGOs and 50 PR people."
The Macro Picture
Speculative positioning in markets right now is flat - nobody is long, which is a setup for a move up. Financial conditions lead the ISM (a measure of manufacturing activity) by nine months. Financial conditions lead everything because they are rates and the dollar, and the dollar is the big one; the reading uses three-month rates and the dollar. The ISM was down a bit this month, should tick up, then trade sideways into the first quarter or two of 2027, after the midterm elections - the usual midterm "hangover." No serious tightening is expected, because the biggest capex buildout in history and the government both have to be financed, so the monetary "spigots" must keep flowing.
The Clarity Act
The Clarity Act is the big catalyst markets do not expect to pass. It might not, but it could. Senator Cynthia Lummis says it is the last chance to pass until 2030 and is pushing for a vote. Nobody will agree on everything, so the call is to just vote and pass it. Senator Kennedy agrees, saying he would "rather have a back alley colonoscopy than go to another meeting" and that it is time to vote - "that's why God made votes." A pass-or-fail result will come soon.
Hunter Biden Memecoin
A sign of bull-market activity: Hunter Biden, a mainstream political celebrity, is launching a memecoin called "Laptop" on September 9th, referencing his laptop scandal. Per the Wall Street Journal, it will launch on Coinbase's Base network, which may help Base. Tokenomics:
- Supply is 1 billion tokens.
- Founders, including Biden, are allocated 30%. Those tokens are unsellable for 6 months and vest over more than two years.
- 20% will be airdropped in two rounds to wallets underwater on the Trump memecoin, to Biden's Substack subscribers, and to a mailing list run by his friend Andrew Callahan, a video journalist.
- The remaining 30% will be burned based on specific triggers, such as Democrats winning the 2028 election, a new Bitcoin all-time high, or Laptop's market cap overtaking Trump's coin.
This is a mainstream, bull-market event worth watching, not an endorsement.
